Covid in California

Covid Diary (July 22-31, 2020)

July 22

California now leads the USA in recorded Covid cases in the USA. Total today is 415,000 with 7,890 deaths. New York state's total deaths is 32,600 - a higher death rate, but also testing for the coronavirus back in the spring was dire.

Trump, on July 21, acknowledging in a newly resumed Covid press briefing that at close to 70,000 daily new cases in the nation and 1000 daily deaths, the country has a problem. Duh! He actually promoted the use of masks. Reluctantly. Obviously coached by an advisor.

The progress on vaccine candidates is in the news. Published results of a Phase 1 trial of the Jenner Institute out of Oxford University showed success, giving the world hope. Phase 3 of their trial is in progress in South Africa, Brazil and the UK. Two other candidates out of the US, led by the NIH and sponsored by Operation Warp Speed is about to go into Phase 3 trials too.

It's looking increasingly likely that we're mid Pandemic and by December things may look up.

Meanwhile, it's high summer. Daily morning fog this month has made my morning runs blissful. The evenings, with daylight lingering, have been gorgeous. After dinner I either do garden chores or we go for a walk in our neighborhood, looping around Holiday Hill Road. I've been buying delicious sweetcorn, tomatoes and strawberries from Lane Farms where it's easy to feel safe from Covid. The freedom to do food shopping is such a thrill. Something I've always taken for granted. In pandemic times we've been staying away from our favorite grocery stores like Trader Joe's. I popped into Sprouts at 7:00 in the morning when practically no customers were around. I loved cruising through the aisles and grabbing a selection of items we'd been deprived of.

In our CSA box we've been getting exquisite plump, sweet blackberries. Their strawberries and melons are divine too. Can't complain really.

We saw the comet Neowise from our garden this evening. Due to streetlights we had to use binoculars which enabled us a decent view of this rare astronomic event. Visible just this week, it appears below the Big Dipper.

July 23

Covid cases today: Worldwide 15,500,000; USA 4,125,000; Brazil 2,200,000; India 1,300,000 and South Africa (in 5th place) 400,000. California has exceeded 400,000 cases, recording a record 12, 800 cases yesterday. USA daily deaths now around 1,100 and in California daily deaths close to 150.

Distressingly, our state's numbers are just not budging. The positivity rate is at a hopeful 7.5%.

Outside the disastrous USA, Latin America, the Middle East, South Asia and South Africa continue with explosive new daily cases.

Dr. Fauci, the nation's leading expert in Infectious diseases, our Cassandra, has not been invited to Trump's press briefings, since his honest assessments clash with politics. However, it's heartening to see that media outlets give Dr. Fauci plenty of air time and his voice is heard daily, far more than Trump's thankfully.

July 27

California's 14 day average of identified Covid cases is 9,400. Average number of deaths is 95. In the past week the state recorded its highest daily death tolls and hospitalizations. Testing has ramped up in the state. Hoping desperately for better news in August.

South Africa has also broken daily records for new infections, hospitalizations and deaths. They've discovered a mistake in their numbers which they attempted to correct resulting in a frightening spike of over 572 deaths on one of the days. Last week's daily death toll hovered between 200 and 300.

Big News Items:

The debate on opening schools. Epidemiologists are divided. Knowledge about infections and transmissibility among kids is vague, inconclusive. It seems that every decision is the wrong decision. Dr. Fauci says to base school openings on local Covid situation. South Africa's president announced a 4 week closure of public schools in anticipation of a peak in their Covid numbers.

Congress is debating another stimulus package since $600 weekly unemployment payments are about to expire. The Democrats are requesting a continuation of these payments until January of 2021 and Republicans are opposed to it.

Good news on the therapeutics front. Moderna has begun Phase 3 trials of its vaccine candidate.

Dr. David Ho, brother of our dentist, is hopeful about a new treatment he is working on which uses neutralizing antibodies. His research has just been published in the journal Nature.

The beach has become a favorite place for entertainment. Last week I took advantage of the combination of low tide and fog and did my morning run from Goleta Beach to Campus Point and back. I saw dolphins every time. On our weekend beach walks we saw a cluster of seals close to the Bacara Resort. Simply delightful.

July 31

Covid numbers for this last day of July: USA 4,6 million and 155,000 deaths; California 485,000 and 8,900 deaths. Santa Barbara County recorded 105 new cases on July 30. In the past week new daily cases in the country plateaued at an eye watering average of 68,000 and California's 14 day average stands at 9,200. Daily deaths have broken records, the 14 day average at 112, and on this last day of July 219 deaths reported, the highest ever since the outbreak. Daily death toll in Florida and Texas higher than California, spiking to above 200 and 300. The graph for the USA shows an upward trend though we haven't reached April death numbers yet.

South Africa, holding on to 5th place on Worldometers, appears to have peaked at 13,000 daily cases, though the daily count continues to hover around that peak. Half a million identified cases. Volatile situation there.

Distressing situation in Australia with an outbreak in Victoria, leading to a lockdown in Melbourne. But all week the daily count rose and new cases found in New South Wales and Queensland too.

In Europe there are flare ups in Spain and France. Vacations in Spain went pear shaped. Amazes me that people foolishly make travel plans knowing that a Covid hotspot to emerge anywhere at any time.

Other News: President Obama delivered the eulogy at the funeral service for Congressman John Lewis, a prominent civil rights activist and advocate for Black issues. The morning of July 30 was dedicated to this event taking place at the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. I watched Obama's moving speech in real time, knowing that it would be something special. While praising Lewis's achievements, in his famously thoughtful way Obama wove in the Civil Rights chapter with today's Black Lives Matter protests. He pointed to defective societal practices and politics that mar progress.

Biden's VP pick will be announced within a week. I found out today that my favorite, Susan Rice, has a son who is a Republican MAGA nut. Don't know what to make of that. Another contender, Congresswoman Karen Bass, has risen to the top. We'll soon know ...

Dr. Fauci, the nation's Cassandra, testified to Congress this morning on the continuing dire Covid situation and what we need to do. He's so skilled at delivering facts, diplomatically pointing out missteps and what needs to change, and keeping things positive with his reassurances that a successful vaccine is on the horizon.

Hope keeps us going ...

Covid in California (July 2020)

July 1

A bleak start to the month in California where coronavirus cases are skyrocketing. Today we hit an all time high of over 9000 new cases identified in a day. The death toll today was 105, a high previously recorded back in April. The mood here is gloomy. Today Governor Newsom ordered closures of indoor gathering places that have only just opened in the past 1 to 3 weeks. Indoor dining, movie theaters, and museums have to close in 19 counties including Santa Barbara. Doesn't surprise me at all. A sensible decision, but it's a head scratcher that they were even allowed to open up.

July 3

The Covid situation in our area is now the worst it's ever been. Yesterday Santa Barbara county recorded 372 new cases. That's an explosive increase from a week ago. California recorded a shocking 9,352 new cases for July 2 and the USA recorded around 59,000 new cases. Higher than anything seen since the start of the outbreak. Amazing how loosening restrictions led to reckless behavior. Our county beaches will be closed to non exercise use this 4th of July weekend to prevent Ventura and LA folks flocking here.

While I'm not surprised at the surge it's nevertheless a downer. And since the situation feels far more overwhelming than ever before I can't predict when we'll return to a stable situation of low, manageable Covid numbers. 

July 7

A return to hot, summery weather. Today's Covid news is grim in California. The month of June saw steep rises of new cases, with twice as many infections as May. Hospitalizations have spiked, but haven't reached capacity. Death toll yesterday (July 6) was 111. The 14 day rolling average of daily deaths hasn't changed much from May numbers. Theories are as follows: New infections mainly among younger adults; new treatments have become standard; the expected lag between identification and death. The concern is that infections could transmit to the older population in the next weeks. Not a time for optimism. Florida, Texas and Arizona have reached critical levels, overwhelming medical resources. Fear of running out of ICU beds.

July 10

"A harrowing week for California," I heard Laxmi Singh on NPR say on my drive back home from Goleta Beach where I had just gone on a half hour run. The endorphin boost prevented a collapse into depression from the bleak Covid situation. On July 7 the new daily case number was a record 11,697. Daily death tolls have now surpassed the April peak. On July 8 there were 149 deaths and 140 on the 9th.

On my drive to and from the beach the roads were as busy as pre-Covid times. The locals are back at their jobs and businesses and this could only spell continued Covid growth. Another lockdown may not happen though the atmosphere appears volatile. Hospital beds and ICU units are likely to dictate what happens in California.

South Africa's new daily infections are now above 10,000, has moved to 13th place on Worldometers, and their daily death toll is now over a 100. Still a comparatively low death rate. Africa, on the whole, is showing low infections and deaths. Not sure if it's to do with corruption or something else, like the BCG vaccine given to all newborns. Apart from Brazil, the country with 2nd highest number of recorded Covid cases, Latin American countries show a declining trend.

July 13

Governor Newsom has ordered a roll back of restrictions. Personal care services, gyms and churches have to close in 30 counties. I welcome this and desperately hope to see a decline in Covid cases. I fear that pandemic fatigue may not result in the strict adherence of safety measures as we'd seen in the spring. We'll have to see if Los Angeles can accomplish what New York did in April.

California is now in 2nd place with total Covid cases in the country. Daily new cases in the state between 7000 and 8000, slightly lower, and we're hoping we've reached a plateau. Our county has seen a 50% increase in total cases in the past 2 weeks. Florida is reporting largest number of new daily infections, reaching 15000 yesterday, the highest of any state since the start of the pandemic. Some cities in Florida have exceeded hospital ICU unit capacity. Daily deaths in Florida in double digits, but predicted to spike in the coming weeks. California's daily death toll fell below 100 in the past few days. Nationwide the graph of deaths had depicted a downward trend until a few days ago, when it began going upwards.

Anxiety levels definitely up. The best medicine available now is Remdesivir and last week there was concern of hospitals running out. Trump fueling anxiety too. Demanding schools open up and threatening to not allow international students in the country if universities don't have in person classes.

Trump also using ugly tactics to discredit Dr. Fauci, the leading infectious disease epidemiologist in the country. This imbecilic refusal to address a crisis is jaw dropping.

Back in May, before Memorial Day weekend, I wondered if the worst was over. Now I wonder if the worst is yet to come.

Something uplifting was the 5 mile beach walk on Saturday morning at low tide from Coal Oil Point to Bacara Beach. On the way back we saw a big pod of frolicking dolphins. Absorbed the magic of it for about 10 minutes.

July 16

The Covid situation now seemingly out of control in the USA. Yesterday 71,000 new cases recorded and 1000 deaths. In California, statewide new infections have seemingly reached a plateau, hovering around 10,000 cases. In Santa Barbara County we had 184 new cases 2 days ago, then 89 yesterday, a day later. Daily counts misleading due to testing delays. State testing centers suddenly became overextended resulting in shortages of kits and delays in results. This scenario replicated statewide and nationwide. Truly distressing. I've lost hope in obtaining any control over this without therapeutics. Too many uncontrollable factors at play.

July 20

Exactly 4 months since California went into lockdown. Since Memorial Day weekend counties around the state began a phased opening up which instantly led to scary results. Now retail has opened up, but personal services in much of the state had to shut down again.

California has plateaued at roughly 9,500 new cases in the past week, with daily deaths close to 100. In Santa Barbara County there've been about 100 new daily cases. Numbers are high but showing a promising trend.

Masks have been mandated statewide. Schools will not be open for in person instruction this fall until the county improves their Covid situation and gets removed from the governor's watchlist.

South Africa has had a shocking two months of explosive increase in Covid cases. With 364,000 total cases, they are now 5th in the world, adding about 13,000 new cases each day. Current total death is 5,000. Comparatively low, and ranked 22nd, but their daily toll has now risen above 100.

I find it so disheartening that we blew our opportunity to get this pandemic under control in the USA. Really underscores the importance of a competent leader. At this point when I look at the story of Covid so far, here's how I can summarize it:

Phase 1 It started in January with Wuhan in lockdown and the WHO announcing a world health disaster. In February as Covid increasingly became daily news, panic shopping set in. Toilet paper flew off the shelves for reasons nobody knows. Everyone began hoarding long shelf life food - rice, pasta, canned foods, flour, yeast, etc. Supermarket shelves emptied out.

 

Phase 2 In mid March Italy's crisis kicked off Europe's lockdowns, followed weeks later by lockdowns in the USA and then the rest of the world was in some form of quarantine. In April pretty much the entire global economy ground to a halt, except for China which was awakening from its slumber. Home made bread photos appeared on social media. Mitigation appeared successful when World Covid numbers began a decline as did the daily death toll. 

Phase 3 In mid May people emerged from their hibernation. Some countries (New Zealand, Australia) had achieved success and could safely resume normal life while employing suppression strategies. Europe and the East Coast of the USA stuck to expert advice and opened up safely, cautiously. The rest of the USA, goaded by Trump the infant, opened up too soon. Dr. Fauci's Cassandra warnings fell on deaf ears, even in California. By early June the mistake was impossible to deny by the graph shifting its curve. Deaths continued to decline and then by early July the curve bent upwards. About 1000 daily deaths currently. At April/May peak we were seeing about 2,500 daily deaths.

Now we're in a new phase, with just as much uncertainty as early spring. I'm no longer holding my breath. I realize the world will continue to be chaotic for at least another 6 months. I suspect we don't need to hoard toilet paper and stock up on non perishables anymore. There's some chance people will wake up and adhere to safety measures so that we can live with fewer restrictions. Maybe we're in mid pandemic at this point.

The good news is that therapeutics are looking increasingly promising. Current treatments are already effective in reducing hospitalizations and deaths. Vaccine candidates have shown success in early trials and a few have progressed to Phase 3. It looks increasingly likely that in a few months we'll have more and better treatment options and by January 2021 there'll be a successful vaccine.

I'm amazed I still have my sanity 4 months later. For the most part my mood is good and I'm able to keep occupied with activities I enjoy. But I so miss the freedom to pop into stores and meet up with friends in a more relaxed way. We've had friends over for socially distanced evening meals and drinks. Summer temperatures have been pleasant and face to face communication with people dear to us has been wonderful. In early July we packed a lunch and joined Judy and Andy on their shady deck looking out to mature oaks. Over a full bodied aged French wine from their cellar, we covered all the current topics as well as the opera that the Met has been making available for free on their website. Judy served an incredible home made berry sorbet infused in a basil syrup. 

Robin and Eje came over for dessert and wine one evening. I made a French Apple Tart, an annual indulgence using our home grown apples. Nancy and Rich joined us for drinks and apple cobbler on another evening. Susan and Bob came over with their own meal and drinks. Petar and Anna returned from their cabin near the Tetons and invited us over for drinks on their deck. Premi and Sri have been regulars for shared dinner every Sunday evening. We're so grateful to have such caring friends that we're able to actually interact with in these strange times.

Summer bounty has been a welcome mood booster too. Corn and heirloom tomatoes from Lane Farms, and peaches, plump blackberries, honey sweet strawberries in our Givens Farms CSA box compensate for our inability to shop at weekend farmer's markets.

A week ago we were jolted by the news that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is again on chemotherapy due to cancer spots found in her liver. This 87 year old woman has caused us a lot of stress in the last 3 years with her health issues. Why didn't she retire under Obama? It's a mystery. Fingers crossed she'll pull through for another 6 months.