31 August 2020

Covid in California as Summer Peaks

August 24

Foggy morning, thank goodness! After 2 sizzling weeks - due to tropical storm systems south of us - the lower temps  are blissful. Did my morning run on the beach, from Goleta Beach to the bluffs on campus, down to another stretch of beach and back. Found it soul nourishing. A balm for my battered spirits. Dry thunderstorm activity a week ago ignited raging wildfires across California. The northern part of the state is experiencing the worst of it, where evacuation orders complicate efforts to isolate and prevent Covid 19 spread. Our skies and air have been smoky. Firefighters from across the nation and even from Australia came over to help put out the fires.

Politics now leads the news due to the elections in just over 2 months. This week the Republicans will have their convention and Trump promises to dominate on each of the 4 days. Stomach churning.

The Postmaster General - DeJoy (a Trump appointee) - has been called for questioning by Congress. The Post Office has been taking down public mail boxes and other questionable actions are going on raising suspicions of potential problems with mail in election ballots.

Covid news has been muted. Daily case numbers and deaths in California and in the USA are continuing to trend downward. More states are showing declines than not. Europe, on the other hand, is dealing with new outbreaks and growing new daily infections. South Africa has stabilized to around 3000 new daily cases. There's still explosive numbers in Latin America and India but we aren't getting news that conveys the kind of urgency we'd been hearing about in Europe and the USA.

Cayden and Shrayen started school again today. Fingers crossed that all will go well until the end of the year. 

August 28

Covid anxiety lower in the last 2 weeks as countywide, statewide and nationwide new infections trended downward. California's 14 day average for new cases is 6456 and for deaths is 124. In the USA daily new cases in the past two weeks are above 40,000 and daily deaths around 1,300. South Africa's daily case numbers have declined to around 3000 or less in the past 2 weeks. India now holds the record for highest cases on a single day when their Aug 27 count was 76,800. Latin American countries continue to have high daily infections. Europe is seeing a worrying surge, especially in Spain and France. Everyone wants to avoid another lockdown, so mask wearing is increasingly emphasized.

I'm not expecting the current situation to change much until a vaccine is available. Openings, shutdowns, restrictions, the odd lockdown somewhere, successes, concerns, failures and disrupted student lives. There's talk of rapid Covid tests and new therapies (monoclonal antibodies in particular) and these will help with some sort of stability while we ride out the pandemic.

The Republicans just had their 4 day convention. Daily circus acts where they flouted Covid safety measures and spewed out lies and took credit for successes they had no part in. Trump gave his acceptance speech in front of the White House to an unmasked crowd - a grotesque act for multiple reasons. If we're lucky these may be the final months of this despicable administration.

My book group met at West Campus hosted by Adrienne. Perfect summer evening, mild temperatures, wafts of ocean smells drifting from the beach nearby. Chairs arranged in a circle on a grassy patch, overlooked by a row of towering palms. Over brown bagged dinners we shared our personal stories and discussed The Vanishing Half, a novel about twin black sisters from a small Louisiana town. One uses her light skin and straight hair to pass as white and moves to Los Angeles where she lives the American dream. The other marries then divorces a dark skinned abusive black man and returns to her home town with her very dark skinned daughter. Themes of prejudice in all its forms run through this very engaging book.

August 31

When NPR came on at 6:00 AM and I opened my eyes I was amazed at how dark it was. The peak of summer has no doubt past. Sigh! It's been the weirdest summer of my life. I want it to be over so that we can get closer to better days. Yet, I feel my usual sadness as it wanes.

Total identified Covid cases in USA 6,170,000; total deaths 187,000. Still trending downward with 42,000 new daily cases and 1,200 daily deaths. A while to go before returning to May lows of 21,000 new daily cases and daily deaths in the lower hundreds. Perhaps that won't happen since states in the heartland are now experiencing surges. California is making progress, reporting around 6000 new daily cases and about 120 deaths in the past 2 weeks. Governor Newsom has introduced a new color coded system for counties which details where they are and what they need to do to progress to a new level. Our county, like much of the state, is purple, the most serious level and this means no schools, no indoor dining, and restricted personal services. Other than that the economy is functioning with measures in place.

South Africa, after a week of an opened up economy still showing progress with new daily infections around 2,500 and just over a 100 daily deaths. Will be watching this closely in the next weeks. Curious to see the situation in mid September.

Australia has things under control again, with small numbers of new daily infections. It's the only country that has banned its residents from traveling out of the country. Max is stuck, unable to fly to Germany to be with his family.

Meanwhile, India now tops the world in daily infections which are close to 80,000. Significant new daily infections in Peru, Colombia, Argentina and other South American countrie. Europe grappling with how to suppress new surges.

It looks certain that there won't be another massive lockdown again here, or anywhere. Local governments may impose varying degrees of restrictions. In California, we've settled into a lifestyle that allows us to get through our days reasonably well. If this is sustainable then we may struggle on with some bumps along the way until we're saved by a vaccine.

Though we've found ways to keep our spirits up, the general state of things in the USA is unsettling. Black Lives Matter protests haven't stopped in some cities and often there's been rioting along with peaceful marches. In Portland there's been ongoing unrest, a situation not easy to solve and complicated over the weekend by a caravan of Trump supporters which resulted in a fatal shooting. Since mid-August Kenosha, Wisconsin, has been wracked by demonstrations. A Black man, due to illegal drug involvement, was shot 7 times by police and is now hospitalized. Trump's erratic actions and words keep us on edge too.

We're worried about the elections and the likelihood of corruption from the Trump camp.

I so badly want this pandemic to be behind us. I want to feel free to go to stores and visit friends at their homes and entertain people properly at our home. I want to go downtown and mingle with crowds, shop at farmer's market, have a Happy Hour drink, stroll through the Funk Zone, dine at a packed restaurant.

We've had some cool weather the past few days, which I liked. Made my morning runs more pleasurable. Our weekend morning beach walks were joyful in the fog. Coal Oil Point on one morning, and More Mesa Bluffs the next where we walked farther than ever before, all the way to the many steps that led down to the delightful beach. We headed east and found ourselves at Hope Ranch Beach where people were appearing in growing numbers. Climbing up the long, long stairway on our return gave us quite a workout! We were ready to pig out on crepes filled with sweet, juicy strawberries and rhubarb.

All of August, despite the pandemic, we were blessed with summer's bounty. In our CSA weekly box we've been getting exquisite tomatoes (heirlooms and other), juicy melons, bell peppers, strawberries and other luscious vegetables. I pop over to Lane Farms stand every Saturday for their delicious sweetcorn and whatever else looks good and easy to grab. I've also been popping into Sprouts once a week for peaches (at their peak now), blueberries, grapes, and figs. We've made peach cobblers and a peach tart so our splendid meals have been ending with scrumptious peach dessert every evening for a while.

19 August 2020

Covid Diary August 2020

August 5

Overshadowing pandemic news today is the August 4 Beirut explosion of ammonium nitrate which was stored in a warehouse at the port. Massive destruction of the port area and numerous city buildings. 135 deaths and over 4000 injured. Heartwrenching.

Daryl and I have added tutoring sessions to our daily routines. Cayden and Shrayen, South African nephews who've been out of school since March, are falling behind in their math so we've been working with them via Skype. They seem to love it and are motivated and eager to please.

Covid numbers in South Africa are finally trending downward. 

California is showing improvement too, with new daily cases finally below 10,000. 

August 7

Due to computer glitches at the state level California's new daily case numbers this first week of August have been underreported, showing a 14 day average of 8436. Most frustrating. We are warned the number is higher. It's been over a week since the problem was noticed and amazingly it hasn't yet been fixed. Governor Newsom has been silent on the issue. We do know that the deaths are at a 14 day average of 130. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions have declined too after surging from June to the end of July. The new hotspot in the state is Kern County.

South Africa has leveled off at around 8,000 new daily cases and 300 daily deaths.

Everyday we hear about flare-ups in various parts of the world. It's clear that the Covid situation will continue to ebb and flow. 

My morning runs at Stow Park have been a blissful way to start my day. I'm thrilled to have found a successful way to get my daily exercise. These signs are posted at the park:


The shade from these redwoods, oaks and pines make it possible to enjoy my run. Smells, sounds and sights are all delightful enhancements to the experience.

August 11

Woke up to a foggy morning again. Most of July and this first third of August have started out with fog which lingers until midday to early afternoon. We welcome this. Reduces fire danger, keeps temps down. I'm able to go running on the beach, which I find immensely uplifting.

After breakfast I tutored Shrayen via Skype. I'm teaching him fractions, which is all new to him. My heart goes out to these kids who haven't been in a classroom since March. Though the school sends lesson assignments via email, it doesn't quite help them with absorbing new concepts. 

Russia headlined today with their announcement of an approved vaccine. Their new "Sputnik" moment is how they want it perceived. But the rushed process with no Phase 3 clinical trials is greeted with condemnation in the US.

Worldometers shows more than 20 million identified cases in the world with a quarter of those in the USA. India, at 3rd place, had the most number of new cases yesterday, followed by Brazil. New case numbers for the USA and California now showing a downward trend. We may be making progress in California but a technical glitch with the state's recording data systems have been showing underreported totals for the past 2 weeks. However, deaths and hospitalizations have declined and that's good news. Nationwide, deaths are declining too.
In South Africa, the trends look good too, with declining new daily cases and deaths.

I predict the same messiness we've endured the past 5 months for the next 5 months. Even countries with strong, ethical leadership can't control random hotspots. New Zealand, after 102 successive days of no new local cases, reported a small cluster identified in Auckland. Jacinda Ardern took immediate action, issuing lockdown until the matter was resolved.
China continues to have success, snuffing out hotspots, and able to resume somewhat normal economic activity. On Worldometers 30 countries show more total Covid cases than China.

Despite Covid gloom I'm anticipating reasons for optimism. The elections may go well. Vaccines may show success. The nightmare will end.

August 12

Kamala Harris! The news flashed on my computer screen yesterday afternoon and though I'd been wishing for Susan Rice to be the VP pick, I teared up. A woman with my mother's name could be in the White House in 5 months! My Sydney brother sent me an excited message as soon as he heard the news - early morning as he was getting up.
Good to have this bit of excitement overshadow Covid news. 

August 14

Awoke to a hot morning, but morning run in Stow Park went well thanks to the shade of the many towering trees. A sizzling spell is upon us through the weekend. Summer at its peak keeps my spirits. Balmy evenings, lots of daylight, bountiful produce, especially the tomatoes - heirlooms in our CSA box this week - welcome distractions from Covid. For dinner last night we started with slices of cantaloupe, which came in our produce box. Juicy, sweet, absolutely at its prime it reminded us of summer vacations in Europe. For mains we had plant based "turkey" cutlets and roasted carrots, zucchini and mini bell peppers. We opened up an Amarone to accompany this meal - and it matched splendidly.

The mood this week got a great big boost from Biden's VP pick, Kamala Harris. The more liberal left made some noises that their preference, Stacy Abrams, was ignored, but they're showing excitement too. I see now that Susan Rice - my preference - may not have generated the same excitement since she isn't as colorful and dynamic as Harris. In fact, everyone was sending links to each other of videos showing Kamala Harris showcasing her Tamil heritage. The Democrats have a strong ticket and if they don't get elected, this could only mean a deep dsyfunctionality that has to be addressed.

Covid News: Total identified cases in the USA has reached 5,400,000 with roughly 55,000 daily new cases. I'm not expecting this number to change since new states experience spikes as other states bring their numbers down. Daily deaths hover around 1,200. In California our 14 day average of new daily cases is now 7,700. Still too high. The past few weeks have been the deadliest since the outbreak. On 08/04 there were 202 deaths. Our 14 day average death toll is currently 136. In Santa Barbara County we had 75 new cases on 08/13.
This, I predict, is the new normal.
South Africa has bent the curve, reporting between 2,500 and 4,000 new daily cases. Daily deaths between 200 and 300 are higher than they've ever been. The country will lift most of its pandemic restrictions from August 17, 5 months after lockdown was imposed. Though this may result in a new wave of infections, the government is under pressure to balance harm to the economy versus Covid's impact. Same story all over the globe.

August 19

The Democratic National Convention which kicked off on August 17 dominates the news. A nice break from Covid coverage. The all virtual event is impressive in organization and creativity. The opening featured kids from every state singing the national anthem in the most heartwarming voices. Michelle Obama gave a stirring, impassioned speech on Day 1. Jill Biden assured us of her sincerity and compassion in a well delivered speech from an empty classroom at a school where she had taught. The convention has fueled hope and excitement. It looks likely that in November we'll be breathing sighs of relief.

In California an apocalyptic scenario from raging fires across the state, triggered by storm activity, has forced many people out of their homes. A ridge of high pressure moved into the state a week ago causing lighting, intense heat, and high humidity. We're wilting. Demand on energy has translated to rolling blackouts. 

It's six months since California's lockdown. The partially opened economy keeps us going. Grocery stores are stocked, restaurants are operating with expanded outdoor seating, and busy roads and people out and about give the illusion of normalcy. The state's Covid numbers aren't good though. The 14 day average of new daily cases is 8,089 and daily deaths 132. We're slowly bending the curve. Santa Barbara county numbers are trending downward as well. I would breathe a sigh of relief except that I know as soon as our numbers are low enough to be removed from the Governor's watchlist, we're going to open up schools and higher risk businesses and this will inevitably put us at greater risk of increased infections.
Nationwide the numbers are declining - daily case numbers hover below 50,000 - but we're also learning that testing has decreased. So, again, we're robbed of optimism.

South Africa has fully opened its economy since Monday, August 17. Tutoring Cayden and Shrayen may end next week when they return to school. The message given to South Africans is that they have just past their peak. Warmer weather is on its way and may help keep new daily cases low. The government is taking its chances out of pressure to resuscitate their fragile economy. Perhaps they will reach a stable, manageable situation until therapeutics are available. Also, the country's death rate appears lower than western countries, but there are rumors of inaccuracy. The African continent as a whole is showing relatively low cases and deaths. Not sure what the explanation is.
Covid epicenter still in Latin America (staggering daily increases) and the USA.
Europe's numbers are creeping up. Australia is showing improvement. China and most of Asia have modeled how to deal with a highly transmissible lethal virus.

I yearn for the freedom of normal life.