Springtime Brings Good and Bad Pandemic News

March 22

AstraZeneca has finally released its US trial results this morning. With 79% efficacy in preventing infection and 100% effective in preventing serious illness, the company will now seek emergency FDA authorization. The guess is roll out will occur toward the end of April. Since about 30 million doses are ready to be shipped, things are looking brighter for us in the USA.

After some welcome rain a week ago, the weather has warmed up and spring is visible everywhere. 
We saw the first lupines on a morning stroll in our neighborhood.  

This spring I can legitimately embrace the arrival of this joyful time of year. There is "bright light at the end of the tunnel" we keep hearing. While, for much of the past year the near future was uncertain, it feels fantastic to know that in late spring/early summer things will be significantly better than they are now. Unfortunately, this is only true of the USA and a handful of other countries. Europe, Latin America, much of Asia and Africa will struggle with Covid for many more months.

March 29, 2021

A big day for me. I got my first Pfizer shot! Five days ago, after Governor Newsom opened up vaccinations for 50+ starting April 1, and for every adult starting April 15, vaccine availability switched from scarce to plentiful. A mass vaccination clinic run by Santa Barbara County Public Health in conjunction with Federal institutions opened up on Sunday and when I looked for an appointment on the website I found I could have my choice of day and time. This week the clinic is held in Lompoc, an hour's drive from home. Daryl delighted in the opportunity to drive out of town and enjoy the transient beauty of the area while the fields are green and poppies and lupines are bursting into bloom. At the Senior Center in Lompoc I joined a long line of eager county residents awaiting the start of becoming inoculated against Covid. It all went smoothly and efficiently, volunteers well trained and polite, protocols adhered to by everyone. I did feel more of the needle prick than I'd expected, but, apart from mild localized pain, I'm feeling no side effects yet.

The timing is fortuitous. The expected Covid surge appears to have begun. Last week's new infections in the US were higher than the previous week. The increase is specific to certain states at this point. The new variants of concern, spring break vacationers, and easing of restrictions are blamed. The CDC director, Rochelle Walensky, and President Biden are again urging state leaders to enforce mask wearing and safer public behavior. Meanwhile, huge amounts of vaccines are becoming available and many more mass clinics are opening up around the country. Ideally, strict safety protocols for another month would reap incredible benefits. But, by now, I'm well versed with humans opting for selfishness and recklessness over safety. Thankfully, in California, our numbers are still on a decline.

Today, after my vaccine shot, Daryl and I took Highway 246 to Buellton. We treated ourselves to a restaurant lunch at the legendary Industrial Eats. Vadouvan roasted cauliflower and roasted chanterelles were as exquisite as we'd remembered and of course, we had to have a local wine - a red blend - for maximum enjoyment. We weren't brave enough to sit at an outdoor table since quite a lot of people (responsibly masked) milled around. We used the trunk of the Prius as a seat which worked well. After lunch we continued on 246, past the ostrich farm and then turned into a side street to check out Solvang. Perhaps we could find a cookie or Danish pastry? Astonishingly, the town was packed with tourists. It looked like pre-pandemic times. Where did these people come from? Ideal vacation weather - sunny and warm - played a role. It was immediately apparent that stopping the car and seeking out a bakery involved more risk than we were comfortable with. So we returned to 246, cruised past the casino which now towers over the area, and merged with the 154 for a scenic drive through San Marco Pass. As home drew closer we found ourselves discussing topics we'd avoided for a year. Travel destinations, trips to visit family, entertaining friends at home, etc.

Vaccine Headaches

 March 19, 2021

A return to Daylight Saving Time is a mood-booster. Spring has arrived. The garden, after a most welcome rainy spell, looks vibrant, blooms and blossoms releasing heady fragrances. 

Such exquisite beauty and scents despite no fussing from us

Emerald slopes and fields in our area make pre-dinner strolls especially pleasurable. We know a dry April would quickly transform the lushness to tans and browns, so we revel in this ephemeral luxury. 

The Covid landscape has changed remarkably since the arrival of vaccines and President Biden. Now the USA appears better poised to overcome Covid than Canada and Europe. Given America's economy and vast resources, coupled with proper leadership, this shouldn't be surprising. We're still at the high plateau of close to 60,000 new daily infections. The B117 and a New York variant threaten progress. In fact, some states (like Michigan and New Jersey) are seeing an increase in daily new infections. As more and more states loosen Covid protocols, the CDC and health experts urge caution. We are neck and neck in the race between variants and vaccines. Look at Europe, they warn.

Europe's third wave is alarming. Germany, France, Italy battle with staggering new infections. Ongoing issues with AstraZeneca hampers progress. After a weeklong pause in vaccination due to reports of blood clotting in a handful of patients, Europe has resumed the process. Paris is in lockdown again, as is all of Italy and parts of Germany. With the B117 variant on a rampage and a sluggish vaccination pace it may take many months before the tide turns.

Meanwhile, here in Southern California, we inch toward normal everyday. Last Saturday we enjoyed a superb dinner with our friends Marty and Barb on their back terrace. Though each couple sat at a separate table, it was a far more relaxed and enjoyable social evening than we'd had in a year. On Sunday morning, after an invigorating walk across More Mesa and down to the beach, then back up the many steps, we shopped at the Goleta farmer's market. It's asparagus season and locally grown, freshly picked spears are the best! We picked up early season strawberries too. Out in public like that, interacting with vendors, gave Daryl a high. Much deserved too. He's been ultra disciplined with Covid protocols in the past year. Plus he's online teaching required much effort and time. Now it's exam week of winter quarter and after that a teaching free spring quarter.

A week ago Governor Andrew Cuomo was under the media spotlight due to complaints from several women of sexual harassment. Coupled with his fudging data about Covid deaths at nursing homes in New York state, it seemed likely that he would resign. This week, while an impeachment investigation is in the works, I haven't seen any coverage of Cuomo. Our governor, Gavin Newsom, is in trouble too. A recall petition has been filed by right wing idiots angry at him for shutting down the economy when the coronavirus was widely spread in California. This petition would've fizzled out, but for the unfortunate Laundry House dinner that Newsom attended, which became ammunition and helped them gather the requisite number of signatures. I am infuriated that the recall process is now on its way to becoming official. A costly process, unnecessary, and I believe there are enough sane Californians to ensure that our governor keeps this job. 

But let me just state that the main question on my mind everyday is: Will I be vaccinated in April?

Covid News Increasingly Upbeat in the USA

 March 3, 2020

Late yesterday (Mar 2) President Biden announced an assurance that there will be sufficient vaccines for every American by the end of May. A total mood booster. We can look forward to a somewhat normal summer that involves travel.

But the CDC has again reminded the public and state leaders to be mindful of the variants of concern. The governor of Texas - Greg Abbot - in open defiance of the warning lifted the mask mandate of a state still seeing high new daily infections. This pandemic has certainly been an education on human behavior.

March 8

According to Michael Osterholm, a leading infectious disease expert, we are now in the eye of the hurricane. A month ago the B117 variant comprised 1 - 4% of Covid cases. It's now the virus strain in 30-40% of cases. The turning point, he says, is 50% and then cases could shoot up again, like it did in Europe. France and Italy continue to battle with a stubborn plateau of over 20,000 new daily cases. The race is on between vaccinating and worrisome virus mutants. New York's newly sequenced mutant is cause for concern too. Meanwhile, more states are loosening restrictions. People are letting down their guard. On a hike up the Bill Wallace trail on Saturday late afternoon we were astonished at the fully occupied campground and RV Park at the trailhead. Multifamily groups, unmasked, gathered close together, totally ignoring the pandemic! Annoyingly, one such cluster (covidiots!) hung out on a section of the trail, oblivious to our need to get past them safely! Is it any wonder that suppression of the virus has been such a struggle!

Air travel is on the increase Schools in our area are now open (within CDC guidelines). This morning I saw kids with their bouncing backpacks on the school campus across Stow Grove Park. A strange and beautiful sight. The roads are full of traffic like normal times. People keep asking when will life return to normal. Obviously, it'll be a gradual process. And each new day I'm seeing it in action. If vaccination wins over the variants - to be revealed in 3 weeks - then we are surely on a one way road to normal times. Amazingly, the USA for the first time since last summer, isn't the worst performing country. Brazil is currently the global epicenter and yesterday recorded twice as many daily new cases (80,000) as the USA. California continues to improve, now in 4th position of new daily infections. New York has become the US epicenter again and their numbers are worrying.

The CDC has issued guidelines for fully vaccinated people. They can now mix with other fully vaccinated people indoors, unmasked. Makes me even more impatient for my vaccine shots! Currently, essential workers - educators and those in the food industry - are receiving their shots. Next will be below 65's with health issues. My age group will follow. That could happen by the end of this month.

March 11

How wonderful it is to wake up to uplifting events and news! A storm system in our area has dumped over an inch of rain in the last couple days. After 5 dry weeks of springlike temperatures at a critical part of our rainy season, it's a thrill to see, smell and hear precious rain. Fruit trees, about to burst into blossom, have a shot at a healthy spring growth. Our garden is suffused with spring scents - citrus blossoms, wisteria, lavender, jasmine. How lucky we are to step out the house and into such beauty everyday!

President Biden scored a huge win with the American Rescue Plan signed into law. Republicans obstinately refused to vote for it so it past Congress on strict party lines. Sigh! An infusion of close to $2 trillion into the economy is geared toward special programs to rescue low income communities. More ambitious and far reaching than previous relief programs, this law could well seal Biden's legacy.

It's been a year since the WHO declared Covid 19 a pandemic. A year since worldwide lockdowns. A year since I've eaten at a restaurant and swam at the gym pool. It's a great feeling to know that we're inching closer to the end. Dr. Fauci et al still express concern at the high daily infections, with only a slight drop from the previous week. Travel over Spring break is discouraged. The potential for another surge exists. Europe appears to be in worse shape than us. Parts of Italy will go into lockdown over Easter weekend. Germany's case numbers appear to fluctuate. Vaccination obstacles continue. Latin America is currently the hardest hit part of the world. They need help. We need to fix our situation and then send resources to the developing world urgently.

President Biden commemorated the pandemic's sombre anniversary by delivering his first prime time address to the nation since inauguration day. Hope was the theme on this 50th day of his presidency. Pleas for unity, patience, and vigilance were accompanied by assurances of vaccine availability. He has ordered states to open up the vaccination queue to every American adult by May 1. Yippee! He set July 4 as a goal when families can gather together and celebrate. Biden's agenda has been surprisingly progressive and courageous. A glorious end to one of the best days in a year.

Vaccines and the Covid Trajectory

 02/22/2021

The date looks pretty today!

On this spring-like day (still no sign of rain) the mood out here in California is positive. A 5 week decline of new Covid infections fills us with hope. As increasing numbers are vaccinated - farm workers in our area have started receiving their shots - another surge appears unlikely. Much of California is still in the purple tier. Our county hasn't yet met the criteria for entry into a less restrictive tier. We're sure to get there soon. 

Today, President Biden paid respects to the 500,000 lives lost to the pandemic. He's such a decent gentleman. It's clear that his daily calendar is crammed with actions addressing the nation's problems.

The topic of opening up schools in California is being hotly debated. Both the left and the right are pressuring Gavin Newsom. The right are using school closures to strengthen their argument to recall the governor. But teachers' unions are sticking to their demands that teachers should be prioritized for vaccination and school campuses need to comply with Covid safety measures. The CDC has issued guidelines on safely opening up schools. Low case numbers are a criterion and our state isn't there yet. Newsom has expanded opportunity for teachers to be vaccinated. However, vaccine inventory is low so there's only so much he can do! In another 2 months vaccine supply is expected to be robust. By then the school year will be almost over. Hence the urgency.

Feb 23

When I opened my eyes this morning the bedroom was bright. Winter is definitely out the door. A spell of summer temperatures is unnerving. Rain, please!

When I looked at CNN's live updates (as I do every morning and periodically through the day) gloomy coronavirus forecasts were replaced by vaccination progress around the globe. Each new day, another country begins its vaccination program. Companies have committed to production levels that more or less guarantees summer travel. At this point international travel is still uncertain. Boris Johnson predicts the UK could see a return to normal life by the end of June. We hope to visit family in England in August, but if things go wrong, we are sure we'll be able to go on a car trip up north into Oregon, visiting and staying with friends along the way. We'll be in Berkeley on Sabbatical in the fall and we're very excited about that. That we can even entertain these prospects says a lot about where we are in the pandemic.

Compared to December/January numbers, the steep decline is most heartening. New covid infections today: USA 59,000; California 5,000; South Africa 800

February 26

Currently, there's much media discussion about the pandemic's trajectory. What will spring, summer and fall look like? Spring appears to be the big question mark, mainly due to variants of concern. The California variant has troubling mutations. It was this variant that drove our horrendous November/December surge. Since genomic surveillance has been minimal, it was only after the UK and South Africa sounded alarm bells over their variants of concern that domestic mutations were observed. These mutants have spread nationwide. Experts are worried that the Covid picture could change in March as a result. So, of course we can't sit back and relax and believe current trends will hold. In fact, this week new daily infections nationwide have hit a plateau of around 72,000. Still a frightening number. In California our downward trend continues and our 14 day positivity rate is 2.9%. That elicits a huge sigh of relief. We are sure to move to the red tier soon. In fact, Santa Barbara elementary schools are opening up for in person teaching on March 1. Huge step.

The good news could continue, or the variants could play havoc with us for a while until vaccinations ramp up.

Summer, according to pieces I've read in The Atlantic and The New York Times, is likely to be normal. Herd immunity through vaccinations is expected by July if the vaccine companies stick to their commitments.

Fall is expected to be largely normal. Winter could be like pre-pandemic times. But since children won't be inoculated until late in the year, an optimistic scenario can't be guaranteed. Also, other countries may experience vaccine shortages and as long as the virus is still out there question marks will remain.

The situation in the EU block looks surprisingly worrisome. France leveled off at 20,000 new daily infections (too high) and then in the last day or two are seeing a rise. Germans aren't flocking to their vaccination centers for the AstraZeneca jabs. Bad press in January is blamed. More surprising, Angela Merkel is declining this vaccine, citing her age. What is going on? Germans are demanding their homegrown Pfizer vaccine and are asking why it isn't available to them?

Nobody in the US is talking about the AstraZeneca vaccine. What's the status of our trials? Have we ruled it out?

March 1

The ongoing warm spell has us convinced that spring is here - too early. Our patio furniture is out of storage. Premi and Sri joined us for dinner which they provided (exquisite curries, methi roti, dhal makni) and it definitely felt like we were at a new stage of the pandemic. I was the only one of the 4 of us not yet vaccinated. This could change in another 2 months. Not wishful thinking according to the news articles about companies promising deliveries in the next weeks and months. The Johnson and Johnson vaccines are on trucks today on their way to vaccination sites all over the country. In California it's likely that teachers will be vaccinated before the end of March.

It's gratifying to wake up to sunny news and positive assurances each new day. However, the CDC has been expressing concern at the leveling off of Covid trends nationwide. Of greater concern is that the daily new infections are still too high - close to 70,000 - which back in the fall had us freaking out. In fact, new infections in New York, Texas and Florida are rising. This is the month that will determine the impact of the variants with concerning mutations. Epidemiologists are expecting a surge. But it won't be like winter. The worst is behind us. Many of the most vulnerable are now vaccinated and another large number have natural immunity. A month from now a bigger chunk of the population will be vaccinated.

In summary, one more month of either uncertainty or gloom, before the picture brightens. I can do it!