Covid in California - Part 5

More Bleakness

May 2020

May ends on a despairing note. Protestors took to the streets in cities all over the country. First there was rioting and looting in major US cities transforming shuttered, ghostlike centers into battlegrounds. Blacks venting years of suppressed anger countered by law enforcement. The catalyst, the brutal death of George Floyd earlier this week.

Honoring the brutal death of George Floyd

Suffocation by the force of a policeman's knee against Floyd's neck. An incident triggered by Floyd paying for cigarettes with a counterfeit $20 bill. A series of other, recent racist events -the bird watcher at Central Park, the trial preparation for the February Ahmaud Arbery shooting incident, the Breonna Taylor shooting - had already set the scene. Over the weekend, anger was channelled into peaceful protests that swelled and spread around the nation and world. Large gatherings marched in solidarity, waving banners. Curfews had to be imposed, but these were violated in places when some protestors switched to destructive behavior. Police deployed tear gas and rubber bullets and made arrests. And all of this while Covid 19 hit East Coast Blacks harder than any other ethnic group. When the person holding the highest office in the country is unable to reach out and show compassion, and in fact, does the opposite - it leaves us more frustrated, sombre. Not what we need in the midst of a pandemic.

Covid 19 numbers on this last day of May:

Identified cases: Worldwide 6.2 million; USA 1.8 million; California 100,000; South Africa 30,000; UK 275,000; Australia 7,195

Brazil has zoomed up to half million cases, Russia 400,000

I'm concerned to see that LA is the new epicenter in the USA. Nationwide numbers are going up, but the East Coast continues on a promising trend.

But we did have a memorable start to the day. Early morning we assembled breakfast makings and drove up San Marcos Pass and headed to La Cumbre Peak. Cloud cover and fog obscured the normally sensational view of ocean and islands. At the peak there was a group of youngsters having breakfast outside tents they'd slept in the night before. There was also a notice that a permit was necessary to use a gas stove.

Why do pancakes taste better when cooked in the wilderness?

So we drove down the road a bit and pulled into a spot away from notices and set up the portable stove. The setting of valley and mountain views, wildflower scents and nature sounds boosted the enjoyment of our coffee and pancakes stuffed with berries. Didn't do much walking today. But yesterday morning we had walked 5 miles on a long stretch of beach before breakfast.

Great Blue Heron ignores us as we stroll from Coal Oil Point to the Bacara Beach and back

Journal entries for the last ten days of May:

May 21

Exciting day! For the first time since March 14 I shopped inside stores. Stepping into Sprouts and Costco, I experienced the strange world we're now living in! The stores have adapted remarkably. Wider aisles, taped paths to direct customer traffic, mandatory face masks, plexiglass shields to protect workers at the check-out counters. Twenty years ago when Costco first opened up in town we derided its bigness and absurd volume of commodities. Who buys such huge amounts, we used to wonder. Well, today I  was grateful for exactly that. I careened through empty aisles dodge-'em car style, avoiding people, to stock up for the next few months: Toilet paper (Guilty!!), paper towels, soap, laundry detergent, oils, and wine. Astonishingly, the shelves were well stocked, unlike my last expedition back in early March. I avoided the popular aisles so didn't get everything I'd intended.

California is entering Phase 2 of lockdown. Restaurants can allow dine in, and other retail will soon open up. With our county numbers low we are bracing for reckless behavior. Cheering local news is that State Street will have some traffic free blocks to allow restaurants to spread out tables on the sidewalk, European style. Us locals have long dreamed of this.
California is by no means out of the woods. On Worldometers our graph shows eye popping daily increases in new cases and daily deaths, mainly in LA county. The state is now trending more poorly than New York.

At the start of the lockdown, on March 19, we didn't know what to expect 2 months in the future. China's locked down cities were beginning to open up. Their new case numbers and daily deaths had dwindled to double digits. We assumed that our situation wasn't and wouldn't be as bad as theirs! Ha! Well, in California, even with the earliest lockdown in the nation, and a relatively strict one (though not as strictly enforced as China, Italy or Spain), our state is showing a range of results. Some counties, like ours, never reached seriously high numbers and we appear to have suppressed the spread. The Bay Area avoided a New York catastrophe. The metropolitan areas of Southern California, LA especially, after initial success in flattening the curve, are seeing spikes. I'm sure theories abound to explain this. Trouble is, our area is an easy drive up from LA and once we open up we're going to attract visitors and risk a new wave.
We're just going to have to continue 'sheltering in place' for a while longer.

Globally, Covid now has a strong foothold in Latin America. That's where the largest number of new cases are appearing. Brazil's numbers are soaring and it's now in 3rd place, below the USA and Russia. The top 3 countries all have reckless, right wing leaders, more interested in power than in following the science to protect their nations.

May 22

It's the start of the Memorial Day weekend. Some excitement is in the air, but nothing at all like usual.

Dr. Fauci on NPR with hopeful vaccine news. Moderna has seen promising results in the first phase of their human trials. There is a good chance that by January the general public may have access to a successful vaccine.

Meanwhile, we now understand that our daily lives will continue in this modified form until then.
I feel less anxious now than 2 months ago due to knowing so much more. Back in March we had questions. What was the extent of our community spread? Would we be subjected to the crisis situation we saw in Wuhan and then Italy? Would our local governments and health care providers prevail despite a leadership void at the national level? How would we cope in isolation? How long would it go on for? In March Chinese cities were beginning to open up. They had seen remarkable success in just 2 months. Would we follow the same path? Surely our situation was less serious and would end sooner??
And now we have the answers and this makes it easier to face the months ahead.
In March, little was known about the virus and the disease it caused. Now, 5 months after the coronavirus had begun its global path of tyranny scientists have unravelled a load of information. And each day we learn something new. Sometimes the news is hopeful. Like the fact that the virus doesn't mutate much and when it does its behavior is similar to early strands. This bodes well for a vaccine. Distressing news, like the new inflammatory condition seen in kids, brings us down.

Today, I went to Trader Joe's for the first time in ten weeks. Our community has low identified cases, but we are about to loosen up and enter Phase 2. I seized the opportunity realizing it may be months in the future before I may be able to do it again. Back in early March when Covid craziness hit I did some serious shopping with the hope of stocking up for a while. But empty shelves thwarted my efforts. I was pleasantly surprised to see a fully stocked store again. Everything I wanted was available and with spring in full swing I found cherries and apricots too. What a joy to glide through the aisles and select old favorites. Reassuring too was the Covid friendly shopping experience. Limiting the number of people entering the store and people waiting in line have to stand on red painted spots spaced 6 feet apart. Face coverings were mandatory.

Waiting in line to enter Trader Joe's, standing on a marked spot for physical distancing

Carts cleaned up with disinfectant by an employee. Aisles wider and with only a few people inside it wasn't hard to maintain comfortable distance from shoppers.

May 25 Memorial Day

There was a distinct holiday weekend atmosphere around us despite our confinement. State Street awoke from its 3 month slumber, in a new incarnation. Traffic free, with cafes and restaurants using the sidewalks to spread out their tables, enabling physical distancing. We had no intention to bow to curiosity and join the eager crowd out there hungry for distraction, especially with the fine, summer weather.
No complaints about our weekend though. It's so remarkable that despite the lockdown we can access fun activities.
Our 3 day weekend started on Friday evening with an after dinner stroll to our friends' home on La Goleta Road. Anna and Petar opened up a chilled Sauvignon Blanc, each couple at their own table on their spacious deck for distance and ease of mind. The breathtaking view of oak forest and mountains guaranteed a good time. As did warm spring temps and lively conversation.

We awoke at sunrise on Saturday morning and headed into the backcountry where we did a two mile hike on the Fremont Ridge Trail. Blissfully cool temperatures and lots of shade made it a lot of fun. It was the threat of a caffeine headache that got us to turn back for the uphill trudge to the car. But the endorphins lingered through the day. Daryl spent much of the day painting the exterior trim of our house which involved climbing up our tallest ladders. To prevent an adrenalin rush I hid inside and found distraction in Louise Erdrich's The Night Watchman.

It was low tide when we stepped on a peaceful beach early Sunday morning. From UCSB campus we strolled on soft sand, admiring shells and sea creatures on our way toward Coal Oil Point. Fresh, briny air, the cries of seagulls, pelicans in flight, plovers hopping about, a loan egret, rock pools, and the sound of crashing waves.
The shade of the cliff wall protected me from a sun that was strengthening by the second. Another perfect start to the day.

Our friends Premi and Sri joined us on our patio for dinner. It's so good to have face to face interactions with friends during this time when we're mostly isolated. I made a quiche, delicious it was too with fresh basil, red onions, yellow zucchini and roasted bell pepper. They had spent the afternoon cruising State Street and had bought marzipan filled Kringle from Andersen's Bakery for our dessert. Sinfully scrumptious!

It's 4 months since Wuhan was locked down due to the coronavirus and 3 months since Italy made history by being the first nation to go into a strict lockdown. Today, Wuhan and other Chinese cities have succeeded in the battle, reporting few daily new cases. Italy, Spain, Germany and France are opening up with increasing confidence. True for much of Asia. Not South Asia though. Covid 19 cases are exploding in India and its neighbors. Latin America, especially Brazil, is the new hot spot. The USA is still number one in total cases and in daily new cases which average around 20,000. Politics and a leadership void at the federal level will continue to mar our progress. Each region shows unique trends. New York continues on its trend of fewer new cases. California, which appeared promising back in April with a flattened curve, is now seeing frightening surges in LA county and metropolitan Southern California. Mystifying. How is the virus spreading after a 2 month lockdown? Who are the vectors?

The Bay Area in California, Washington State and Oregon continue to show success, reporting small new daily cases.

In South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa has announced a transition to Phase 3 of their lockdown starting on June1. This would mean most of the economy will open up. Still no tobacco products though! Their curve went from flat to vertical. After initial success certain regions, especially the Western Cape, are exploding in Covid cases. However, the government has spent the lockdown period to beef up hospitals and resources. They believe that the expected surge would not overwhelm their facilities.

New Zealand's success in defeating the virus has won everyone's admiration. Interestingly, as they open up, they too will continue with prevention strategies such as physical distancing.

May 29

An intense news cycle related to racist acts. An incident in Central Park, NYC, shocked me. A birdwatcher, a black man, Harvard graduate in communications, politely asked a white woman to leash her dog. When she reacted by calling 911, the birdwatcher filmed her. The recording, posted by his sister on YouTube got millions of hits as everyone watched in horror how an initially innocuous encounter could escalate into a disaster. This time it was the white woman who suffered job loss, pet loss, and disgrace.

A bigger story took place in Minneapolis where a police officer was video-ed when he pressed his knee against a black man's neck and choked him to death. George Floyd's brutal final moments sparked riots on a major scale where buildings, including a police precinct, were set on fire.

Another story is a battle between Trump and Twitter. His incendiary messages have been tagged with fact checking links and warnings. Where will this go?

Two things lifted up my spirits today. I went for a run on the beach at low tide, starting at Goleta Beach, all the way past Campus Point, then back again. Fog kept the temperature cool enough to enjoy vigorous exercise. Taking in the sounds of surf, birdsong and gulping in salty air, I was thoroughly energized.
In the evening I met with my book club over Zoom. We discussed The Night Watchman by Louise Erdrich. It wasn't a story that grabbed me, but the effort was worth it. Such finely honed prose and skilled characterization by a writer focused on the issues of Native Americans of the Northwest. This story was loosely based on the author's grandfather's life and role in rebelling against an unfair law to do with land rights and ownership passed in the late 1950's. I loved the excuse to interact with buddies, to see their faces, hear their voices. So comforting. We're lucky to be living at a time when technology has made isolation so doable.

Zoom Bookclub

What does June hold for us? How bad will things get in Latin America? What about India and South Africa? Will Australia and New Zealand continue to be safe from Covid? And what will we see in California? We're on an upward trend currently with daily new cases, but our medical resources aren't overloaded and our total deaths not terrible.

Covid in California - Part 4

The Pandemic - Two Months After Lockdown

May 18, 2020

Turning out to be an unusual month in more ways than one. In coastal California instead of 'May Gray' when we grumble about stubborn fog and speculate about the sun's appearance, we've been waking up to mid summer warmth and sunshine. The merry month of May indeed. On our walks and drives purple adorned jacarandas stick out in the landscape. Six months ago we were gasping at more majestic varieties of these trees in their native land. A different era. BC. Before Covid.

So another pandemic weekend has gone by and we managed to find ways to keep our spirits up. Not hard to do at this time of the year in our part of the world. We awoke at sunrise and headed out into nature. On Saturday morning we walked on the beach starting at Isla Vista and despite high tide we got plenty of exercise, fresh air and visual delights. On Sunday morning, we followed the recommendation of a friend and drove into the backcountry. Up East Camino Cielo we wound up until we came to the Fremont Ridge Trail. In the early morning the air was neither warm nor cold and there was plenty of shade on the trail. From the ridge we had breathtaking valley and mountain views. A hearteningly full Lake Cachuma was the highlight.

President Obama gave 2 inspiring commencement speeches over the weekend, reminding us what a true leader sounds like. Because graduating seniors this year were robbed by the pandemic of their usual celebration, a virtual event was held. To compensate for their disappointment the organizers lined up big names to give these seniors something memorable. Megan Rapinoe, captain of the US National Soccer Team, basketball player LeBron James, and Malala Yousafzai were the other speakers.

Just about 2 months since lockdown. What is the current state of the world?
Worldwide close to 5 million cases identified; In the USA 1.5 million cases. Russia is now in 2nd place with 290,000 cases. The UK is at 246,000; Australia at 7,000 continues to show success. South Africa's trajectory has changed with recent spikes bringing its total to a dismaying 15,500.
Total deaths in the US 91,000. California is at 80,000 with 3,000 deaths. LA county numbers keep growing. Santa Barbara County numbers have been low, and skewed by an outbreak at the Lompoc Prison. Out of the 1,474 identified cases, over 900 are from that prison. 11 total deaths here.

This morning CNN had promising news on Moderna's vaccine in Phase 1 of human trials. The small sample injected with the vaccine developed antibodies for the coronavirus. Eight other vaccines are in Phase 1 of human trials around the world and in total about a hundred experimental vaccines are being developed. So it looks increasingly likely that life will return to normal maybe a year from now if all goes well.

Here are my diary entries for the first half of the month:

May 1

Covid cases on Worldometers today: Worldwide 3,358,000; USA 1,105,000; the UK 177,000; Australia 6,767; South Africa 5,647
Total Deaths: Worldwide 237,000; USA 10,776; the UK 27,500; Australia 93; South Africa 103

Countries where new cases are growing explosively: Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, Turkey

New daily cases rising dangerously in much of the developing world - Latin America, Africa, the Middle East. What's going to happen in Brazil with the callous Bolsonaro in charge? What about Venezuela? Turkey? Syria? Chaos and heartache, I'm sure, until the arrival of therapeutics.

Today, 50 days after the WHO declared Covid 19 a pandemic, and after roughly 5 to 10 weeks of lockdowns all over the globe, the news is centered around opening up. In the US each state has come up with strategies and today almost half the states in the country is opening up in varying degrees. The country and the world is now a laboratory allowing us to experiment with different approaches. Life cannot return to normal until we have effective therapeutics. Until then, we have to continue to practice limited exposure to society.
Sweden has been making news due to their less restrictive approach as they seek to attain herd immunity naturally. The old and vulnerable have to 'shelter in place', and everyone else should observe physical distancing while most businesses remained open. Their death rate - significantly higher than Norway - presents doubt to this approach.

Non Covid 19 news today: Joe Biden defending allegations of sexual harassment. A woman called Tara Reade has popped up in the news these past weeks. She claims that Biden had touched her inappropriately 27 years ago. Why is she bringing it up now and not 2 years ago, when Biden announced his bid for the presidency? Or when he was selected to be the Vice President? Suspicious that the timing favors Trump!
On a brighter note, I know who he should pick for a running mate. Susan Rice. She has the experience and expertise for the current crisis.

May 4

Monday morning. Today's news is about the risks associated with states opening up. Florida's Governor DeSantis is choosing to ignore the advice and warnings of experts and wants much of the economy back in motion from today. Thirty states have loosened restrictions and a wide range of caution is in action.
The Supreme Court is making history, by carrying out hearings via teleconferencing.

The UK is beginning trials of a new treatment drug, which uses a protein called interferon beta which our bodies produce when we get a viral infection. Results are expected in late June. Other treatment options are being explored too. These are the news items that help us get through each day of the pandemic.

Given the lockdown situation we managed to have a pretty good weekend. The unusual summer temperatures allows us to expand activities, like "physical distancing" on our back patio. Premi and Sri joined us for dinner on Friday evening. I made zucchini fritters and a chickpea stew in which I threw in a variety of farm box vegetables in need of using up. Each couple at their own table and it all worked. On Sunday evening Petar and Anna came over after early dinners at own homes. We shared a bottle of wine out on the patio and covered a range of topics.
At this stage of the pandemic we've learned how to adapt and live in quarantine. Perhaps the worst is over and now we look forward to more freedom and the possibility of therapeutics. Also, the elections keep our hopes up. Joe Biden has a good chance of defeating Trump.

On both weekend mornings we hopped out of bed by 6:30 and headed to nearby beaches. On Saturday morning we did a 2 hour walk from Goleta Beach, across the UCSB campus, along the lagoon and over to Campus Point. A section of cliff walls provided shade and best of all it was deserted.
Sunday morning at Coal Oil Point, the sun shone brightly but the air was still cool enough to be perfect. Three Great Blue Herons circled and landed as we hit the trail down to the beach. So calming to hear the sound of the waves and the cries of gulls.

Today's numbers: Total worldwide: 3,6 million; USA 1,2 million; the UK 190,000 (in 4th place); South Africa 7,220; Australia 6,825
Total deaths: Worldwide 250,000; USA 70,000; UK 28,700; South Africa 138

California Total cases: 55,644; Total deaths 2254

May 5 Cinco de mayo

The University of Washington's Institute for Health and Metrics Evaluation (IHME) are forecasting 134,000 Covid 19 deaths in the USA, almost twice what they'd initially predicted, attributing this to premature relaxation of social distancing rules.
Vaccines - 108 potential Covid 19 vaccines in the works and 8 have advanced to clinical trials. Pfizer optimistically expects to have vaccines available in the fall.

Another big story is a Trump conspiracy that the virus escaped from a Wuhan Virus Research lab where it was created. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is making statements suggesting it's what he believes too. No evidence for this, but world leaders have to be shaking their heads in disbelief!

May 8

Today's big news - unemployment now lower than during the Great Depression. The plight of businesses is a concern. In Santa Barbara, our last remaining big retail store on State Street, Nordstrums, will be closing. Another blow for the Paseo Nuevo mall.

In California some low risk retail stores are allowed to open up for curbside pick-ups. The governor is also leaving it up to individual counties to loosen up restrictions if they've had no new cases and deaths for 2 weeks, on condition of having testing and contact tracing in place.

Trump continues to be reckless. The press leaked a document outlining CDC guidelines for opening up the economy which the White House is choosing to ignore.

Numbers today: Worldwide 4 million; USA 1,300,000; California 63,000
Hoped to see a bent curve for the state, but we're seeing intermittent spikes with 1,746 new cases recorded yesterday. Locally, our county numbers rose due to an outbreak at the Lompoc prison. Number of deaths in California yesterday: 82

My day was brightened by a delightful conversation with Ansuya Chetty, a Ladysmith childhood friend. Her interesting, eventful life journey ferried her to Toronto where she and her husband have lived for 20 years.

May 11

Total Identified Case Numbers today: Worldwide 4,200,000; USA 1,370,000; California 68,000
Total Deaths: Worldwide 285,000; USA 81,000; California 2,700

Yesterday was Mother's Day. No bustling restaurants serving brunch and lunch this year. Crucial revenue these businesses depend on and losing out on this important day has to be crippling. From Facebook and email messages I gathered a fair number of adult children spent some time with their mothers. People are tired of the isolation and are finding safe ways to visit close family.
My mother in South Africa was treated to a hearty traditional dish called potjiekos by her son and his family.
The current news is dominated by states and countries implementing phased openings. Social (physical) distancing and face coverings are imperative to continue the trend of declining new cases and daily deaths. But the Republicans are turning this into a political think and defying the face covering requirement. Go figure!
R0 is a value that we are all learning. It stands for the reproductive rate of the virus. An R0 value below 0 is what the experts advise for countries to begin loosening restrictions. Some countries have achieved that - Germany, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand - and they also have robust testing and tracing abilities. They may well have somewhat normal lives while we, in the USA, leaderless and rudderless, await a successful vaccine.
In California, Governor Newsom has been impressive with his determination to follow the science. However, he has to deal with constant pushback from conservative protestors and a lack of federal support. We're now in stage 2 of our lockdown. Low risk retailers may conduct business strictly on a curbside pick-up procedure. Stage 3, the stage in which all businesses are open with modifications for safety, will be left to individual counties, the criterion being 14 days of no deaths. Santa Barbara county could attain that soon except for the fact that there is a serious outbreak at the Lompoc Prison.

Two staff members at the White House have tested positive for the virus creating tension at the highest level of government. Dr. Fauci and other members of the taskforce have to go into semi quarantine.

The highlight of our weekend: An early morning beach walk on Saturday. It was low tide when we arrived at the Isla Vista Beach. We could walk a long stretch toward Coal Oil Point. Lots of shore birds and tide pool creatures to marvel at as we walked. The fog was thick like a typical May Grey Southern California spring morning. For me, the ideal temperature for a brisk walk.
We stopped at the Isla Vista Food Co-op to pick up groceries which we'd ordered online the previous day. What a convenient way to replenish perishables like dairy and tofu.

We ended the day with Anna and Petar on their deck. Each couple at their own table gave Daryl enough assurance of physical distancing. Over a crisp Gainy Sauvignon Blanc we chatted quite a bit about World War 2 since it was VE Day. They sent us back home with the most recent Apple TV, a gift that they'd received and had no use for. We were delighted since we'd just signed up with Acorn TV and our ancient Apple TV didn't allow installing the app.

Are we going to get through this? When can we hope for a vaccine? What about a treatment? Right now the experts are telling us that the old way of life we're all dreaming of is at least a year in the future. Is the Sweden model the one everyone is going to veer toward?

May 13

Dr. Fauci, questioned at a virtual senate hearing, expressed cautious optimism. He said it was more likely than not that there'll be a vaccine a year from now. So that's good news. But in order to get to some semblance of normalcy we'll have to continue keeping ourselves isolated until we attain a manageable state like Australia and Taiwan. I hope we get there. I'm fine with a year of no travel and spending most of my time at home. But having a semi functioning economy will benefit all of us.

Dr. Fauci spelled out the dangers of states recklessly ignoring science. (Red states, e.g., with the blessing of Trump.) He warned of another spike like we'd just experienced in March/April with a heavy death toll. Even schools, he warned, may not be safe for opening up in the fall.

Is the worst over? Perhaps on the East Coast. But in Los Angeles County the daily number of new cases continues to grow.
Are we going to succeed in maintaining a modified lockdown where we keep the disease suppressed until therapeutics become available? That's the best we can hope for at the moment.