Covid in California - Part 4

The Pandemic - Two Months After Lockdown

May 18, 2020

Turning out to be an unusual month in more ways than one. In coastal California instead of 'May Gray' when we grumble about stubborn fog and speculate about the sun's appearance, we've been waking up to mid summer warmth and sunshine. The merry month of May indeed. On our walks and drives purple adorned jacarandas stick out in the landscape. Six months ago we were gasping at more majestic varieties of these trees in their native land. A different era. BC. Before Covid.

So another pandemic weekend has gone by and we managed to find ways to keep our spirits up. Not hard to do at this time of the year in our part of the world. We awoke at sunrise and headed out into nature. On Saturday morning we walked on the beach starting at Isla Vista and despite high tide we got plenty of exercise, fresh air and visual delights. On Sunday morning, we followed the recommendation of a friend and drove into the backcountry. Up East Camino Cielo we wound up until we came to the Fremont Ridge Trail. In the early morning the air was neither warm nor cold and there was plenty of shade on the trail. From the ridge we had breathtaking valley and mountain views. A hearteningly full Lake Cachuma was the highlight.

President Obama gave 2 inspiring commencement speeches over the weekend, reminding us what a true leader sounds like. Because graduating seniors this year were robbed by the pandemic of their usual celebration, a virtual event was held. To compensate for their disappointment the organizers lined up big names to give these seniors something memorable. Megan Rapinoe, captain of the US National Soccer Team, basketball player LeBron James, and Malala Yousafzai were the other speakers.

Just about 2 months since lockdown. What is the current state of the world?
Worldwide close to 5 million cases identified; In the USA 1.5 million cases. Russia is now in 2nd place with 290,000 cases. The UK is at 246,000; Australia at 7,000 continues to show success. South Africa's trajectory has changed with recent spikes bringing its total to a dismaying 15,500.
Total deaths in the US 91,000. California is at 80,000 with 3,000 deaths. LA county numbers keep growing. Santa Barbara County numbers have been low, and skewed by an outbreak at the Lompoc Prison. Out of the 1,474 identified cases, over 900 are from that prison. 11 total deaths here.

This morning CNN had promising news on Moderna's vaccine in Phase 1 of human trials. The small sample injected with the vaccine developed antibodies for the coronavirus. Eight other vaccines are in Phase 1 of human trials around the world and in total about a hundred experimental vaccines are being developed. So it looks increasingly likely that life will return to normal maybe a year from now if all goes well.

Here are my diary entries for the first half of the month:

May 1

Covid cases on Worldometers today: Worldwide 3,358,000; USA 1,105,000; the UK 177,000; Australia 6,767; South Africa 5,647
Total Deaths: Worldwide 237,000; USA 10,776; the UK 27,500; Australia 93; South Africa 103

Countries where new cases are growing explosively: Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, Turkey

New daily cases rising dangerously in much of the developing world - Latin America, Africa, the Middle East. What's going to happen in Brazil with the callous Bolsonaro in charge? What about Venezuela? Turkey? Syria? Chaos and heartache, I'm sure, until the arrival of therapeutics.

Today, 50 days after the WHO declared Covid 19 a pandemic, and after roughly 5 to 10 weeks of lockdowns all over the globe, the news is centered around opening up. In the US each state has come up with strategies and today almost half the states in the country is opening up in varying degrees. The country and the world is now a laboratory allowing us to experiment with different approaches. Life cannot return to normal until we have effective therapeutics. Until then, we have to continue to practice limited exposure to society.
Sweden has been making news due to their less restrictive approach as they seek to attain herd immunity naturally. The old and vulnerable have to 'shelter in place', and everyone else should observe physical distancing while most businesses remained open. Their death rate - significantly higher than Norway - presents doubt to this approach.

Non Covid 19 news today: Joe Biden defending allegations of sexual harassment. A woman called Tara Reade has popped up in the news these past weeks. She claims that Biden had touched her inappropriately 27 years ago. Why is she bringing it up now and not 2 years ago, when Biden announced his bid for the presidency? Or when he was selected to be the Vice President? Suspicious that the timing favors Trump!
On a brighter note, I know who he should pick for a running mate. Susan Rice. She has the experience and expertise for the current crisis.

May 4

Monday morning. Today's news is about the risks associated with states opening up. Florida's Governor DeSantis is choosing to ignore the advice and warnings of experts and wants much of the economy back in motion from today. Thirty states have loosened restrictions and a wide range of caution is in action.
The Supreme Court is making history, by carrying out hearings via teleconferencing.

The UK is beginning trials of a new treatment drug, which uses a protein called interferon beta which our bodies produce when we get a viral infection. Results are expected in late June. Other treatment options are being explored too. These are the news items that help us get through each day of the pandemic.

Given the lockdown situation we managed to have a pretty good weekend. The unusual summer temperatures allows us to expand activities, like "physical distancing" on our back patio. Premi and Sri joined us for dinner on Friday evening. I made zucchini fritters and a chickpea stew in which I threw in a variety of farm box vegetables in need of using up. Each couple at their own table and it all worked. On Sunday evening Petar and Anna came over after early dinners at own homes. We shared a bottle of wine out on the patio and covered a range of topics.
At this stage of the pandemic we've learned how to adapt and live in quarantine. Perhaps the worst is over and now we look forward to more freedom and the possibility of therapeutics. Also, the elections keep our hopes up. Joe Biden has a good chance of defeating Trump.

On both weekend mornings we hopped out of bed by 6:30 and headed to nearby beaches. On Saturday morning we did a 2 hour walk from Goleta Beach, across the UCSB campus, along the lagoon and over to Campus Point. A section of cliff walls provided shade and best of all it was deserted.
Sunday morning at Coal Oil Point, the sun shone brightly but the air was still cool enough to be perfect. Three Great Blue Herons circled and landed as we hit the trail down to the beach. So calming to hear the sound of the waves and the cries of gulls.

Today's numbers: Total worldwide: 3,6 million; USA 1,2 million; the UK 190,000 (in 4th place); South Africa 7,220; Australia 6,825
Total deaths: Worldwide 250,000; USA 70,000; UK 28,700; South Africa 138

California Total cases: 55,644; Total deaths 2254

May 5 Cinco de mayo

The University of Washington's Institute for Health and Metrics Evaluation (IHME) are forecasting 134,000 Covid 19 deaths in the USA, almost twice what they'd initially predicted, attributing this to premature relaxation of social distancing rules.
Vaccines - 108 potential Covid 19 vaccines in the works and 8 have advanced to clinical trials. Pfizer optimistically expects to have vaccines available in the fall.

Another big story is a Trump conspiracy that the virus escaped from a Wuhan Virus Research lab where it was created. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is making statements suggesting it's what he believes too. No evidence for this, but world leaders have to be shaking their heads in disbelief!

May 8

Today's big news - unemployment now lower than during the Great Depression. The plight of businesses is a concern. In Santa Barbara, our last remaining big retail store on State Street, Nordstrums, will be closing. Another blow for the Paseo Nuevo mall.

In California some low risk retail stores are allowed to open up for curbside pick-ups. The governor is also leaving it up to individual counties to loosen up restrictions if they've had no new cases and deaths for 2 weeks, on condition of having testing and contact tracing in place.

Trump continues to be reckless. The press leaked a document outlining CDC guidelines for opening up the economy which the White House is choosing to ignore.

Numbers today: Worldwide 4 million; USA 1,300,000; California 63,000
Hoped to see a bent curve for the state, but we're seeing intermittent spikes with 1,746 new cases recorded yesterday. Locally, our county numbers rose due to an outbreak at the Lompoc prison. Number of deaths in California yesterday: 82

My day was brightened by a delightful conversation with Ansuya Chetty, a Ladysmith childhood friend. Her interesting, eventful life journey ferried her to Toronto where she and her husband have lived for 20 years.

May 11

Total Identified Case Numbers today: Worldwide 4,200,000; USA 1,370,000; California 68,000
Total Deaths: Worldwide 285,000; USA 81,000; California 2,700

Yesterday was Mother's Day. No bustling restaurants serving brunch and lunch this year. Crucial revenue these businesses depend on and losing out on this important day has to be crippling. From Facebook and email messages I gathered a fair number of adult children spent some time with their mothers. People are tired of the isolation and are finding safe ways to visit close family.
My mother in South Africa was treated to a hearty traditional dish called potjiekos by her son and his family.
The current news is dominated by states and countries implementing phased openings. Social (physical) distancing and face coverings are imperative to continue the trend of declining new cases and daily deaths. But the Republicans are turning this into a political think and defying the face covering requirement. Go figure!
R0 is a value that we are all learning. It stands for the reproductive rate of the virus. An R0 value below 0 is what the experts advise for countries to begin loosening restrictions. Some countries have achieved that - Germany, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand - and they also have robust testing and tracing abilities. They may well have somewhat normal lives while we, in the USA, leaderless and rudderless, await a successful vaccine.
In California, Governor Newsom has been impressive with his determination to follow the science. However, he has to deal with constant pushback from conservative protestors and a lack of federal support. We're now in stage 2 of our lockdown. Low risk retailers may conduct business strictly on a curbside pick-up procedure. Stage 3, the stage in which all businesses are open with modifications for safety, will be left to individual counties, the criterion being 14 days of no deaths. Santa Barbara county could attain that soon except for the fact that there is a serious outbreak at the Lompoc Prison.

Two staff members at the White House have tested positive for the virus creating tension at the highest level of government. Dr. Fauci and other members of the taskforce have to go into semi quarantine.

The highlight of our weekend: An early morning beach walk on Saturday. It was low tide when we arrived at the Isla Vista Beach. We could walk a long stretch toward Coal Oil Point. Lots of shore birds and tide pool creatures to marvel at as we walked. The fog was thick like a typical May Grey Southern California spring morning. For me, the ideal temperature for a brisk walk.
We stopped at the Isla Vista Food Co-op to pick up groceries which we'd ordered online the previous day. What a convenient way to replenish perishables like dairy and tofu.

We ended the day with Anna and Petar on their deck. Each couple at their own table gave Daryl enough assurance of physical distancing. Over a crisp Gainy Sauvignon Blanc we chatted quite a bit about World War 2 since it was VE Day. They sent us back home with the most recent Apple TV, a gift that they'd received and had no use for. We were delighted since we'd just signed up with Acorn TV and our ancient Apple TV didn't allow installing the app.

Are we going to get through this? When can we hope for a vaccine? What about a treatment? Right now the experts are telling us that the old way of life we're all dreaming of is at least a year in the future. Is the Sweden model the one everyone is going to veer toward?

May 13

Dr. Fauci, questioned at a virtual senate hearing, expressed cautious optimism. He said it was more likely than not that there'll be a vaccine a year from now. So that's good news. But in order to get to some semblance of normalcy we'll have to continue keeping ourselves isolated until we attain a manageable state like Australia and Taiwan. I hope we get there. I'm fine with a year of no travel and spending most of my time at home. But having a semi functioning economy will benefit all of us.

Dr. Fauci spelled out the dangers of states recklessly ignoring science. (Red states, e.g., with the blessing of Trump.) He warned of another spike like we'd just experienced in March/April with a heavy death toll. Even schools, he warned, may not be safe for opening up in the fall.

Is the worst over? Perhaps on the East Coast. But in Los Angeles County the daily number of new cases continues to grow.
Are we going to succeed in maintaining a modified lockdown where we keep the disease suppressed until therapeutics become available? That's the best we can hope for at the moment.