Covid Winter of our Discontent

January 25, 2021

Giddy times. President Joe Biden in his first week in office working tirelessly to stop the bleeding. Over 30 executive orders have been signed already to reverse Trump era policy. A reboot, a reset. Covers of news magazines have exploited the metaphor. Biden pushing a lawnmower over the Capitol, transforming drabness to brightness. Biden with a broom in a disastrously messy oval office. But the overwhelming concern is getting the nation vaccinated against Covid. The experts are hard at work. We can be assured that we'll arrive at success in the most efficient manner possible.

I woke up with a smile today for lots of reasons. A series of storms are sweeping through California, the effects of an atmospheric river. Finally. The stubborn high pressure system that gave us warm, dry weather most of January has disappeared. It rained yesterday and this morning. And heavy rain is forecast for much of the week. Yippee!!! Ferocious winds whipped through the night, rattling our bedroom window pane, torturing our trees. Temperatures dipped. We heard there's snow on mountain passes in Ojai. Thick snow blankets the Sierras.

Covid data has been promising too. Daily new infections and deaths have continued to decline nationwide and statewide. The trends are looking good in South Africa too. Experts warn against complacency. The UK and much of Europe, under a stricter lockdown, are struggling with their situation due to the UK variant (B.1.1.7) and since this variant is present in the US our numbers could suddenly spike too. Yikes! Active research is being conducted on the South African variant against the Moderna vaccine. The current belief is that this variant will have a weakened response. Fast action has never felt more urgent. It appears, thankfully, that optimism isn't entirely a fantasy.

In the afternoon Governor Newsom announced the removal of the "Stay At Home" order issued in early December. Based on current trends the state is no longer in danger of running out of hospital beds. Our daily new cases are still twice as high as the peak of the 2nd wave back in August, but Newsom has obviously bowed to pressure from businesses, especially restaurant owners who were threatening to sue him. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place! In any case the color coded tier system will resume in California and much of the state will continue to be in the stricter purple tier. Outdoor dining will resume and retail will open up with safety measures. Combined with a greater focus on vaccination there's reason to feel hopeful about the near future. I can't wait to be in a crowded place again! I'm impatient for the freedom to enter a random store, unmasked, and fearlessly wander up and down the aisles.

For the first time since March 2020 when we went into lockdown the weather prevented me from outdoor exercise. Cold, breezy, with intermittent showers - a typical winter day to be spent indoors by the fire. 

January 29

Elevated levels of endorphins flow in my veins. The result of my morning run in Stow Park after a 3 day pause due to a massive storm dumping heavy rain intermittently. Over a 3 day period we were blessed with 6 inches of rain. Heavy winds, off and on, resulted in tree branches scattered everywhere, but other than that our area hasn't suffered much damage.

Covid dominates the news. Daily case numbers are on a decline in California and the US, as well as in South Africa and much of Europe. This helps quell my anxiety. Also, it's an immense comfort to know that we now have strong leadership and competent people in charge of addressing our crisis. The news of another successful vaccine candidate has been uplifting too. This vaccine, by Johnson and Johnson, is less effective than the mRNA candidates, demonstrating 72% success in the USA and just under 60% in South Africa (the mutant there affirming concerns of its resistance) but provides an additional tool in the fight. It requires one shot only and its easier to store.

These positive developments make it easier to face the grim new challenges of emerging variants of concern. The SA variant has been detected in the USA now - a result of community transmission - so experts are warning of setbacks. We are in a race against rising infections driven by variants of concern and vaccine production which is woefully slow.

EU countries are in despair because AstroZeneca isn't delivering on their promise - likely due to hurdles at their Belgium manufacturing plant.

It's clear that the challenges of vaccine production and administration on a global scale is what 2021 is going to be all about.

Chapter One, Page One of the Biden-Harris Era

 01/21/2021

On January 20, 2021 President Joe Biden, after taking the oath of office, delivered an impeccable inaugural speech and gave the nation and the world a reason to exhale and rejoice. The nation's capital, now cleansed, was about to be renewed. There was bleakness from the absence of traditional crowds and the heavy presence of military troops. In the days leading up to 01/20/2021 threats of violence nationwide had to be taken seriously. All 50 state capitols had to be fortified. The National Mall and Capitol more so. Of course, the pandemic too, ruled out tradition. But creative minds produced a patriotic substitution of adequate compensation and as we watched the "coronation" of the new leadership we couldn't miss the beauty of it all. Physically, emotionally, conceptually. The sea of flags to represent absent citizens, aerial visuals of vibrant patriotic displays in front of the Capitol, and the solemn audience of members of Congress, Biden/Harris extended family and past presidents (minus the most recent) succeeded in marking the beginning of a bright and hopeful chapter.

The next day everyone was talking about Amanda Gorman. The 22 year old spirited young poet dressed in bright yellow who delivered a heartfelt original poem titled "The Hill We Climb".

When day comes we ask ourselves,

where can we find light in this never-ending shade?

From those first lines she mesmerized us, gave us all goosebumps.

Everyone also gushed about the fireworks that brought the historic day to a close. President Joe Biden. Vice President Kamala Harris. Change is upon us. A peaceful transition was accomplished.

How sweet it is to wake up to the words "President Biden ..." on NPR's Morning Edition. Today, his first full day at work the new president signed executive orders to undo Trump era laws. And as the day progressed it was the Covid situation that took center stage. The best minds, the most respected experts are on the team that will steer the Biden/Harris pandemic approach. Dr. Fauci is back at the lead with a platform at the government level to address the nation's concerns.

That's not the only good news on this topic. New infections in the nation and our state have been declining in the past week. Kinks and hurdles regarding administering of vaccinations are being addressed. Biden's goal of 100 million doses in a 100 days is now viewed as modest. There's talk of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine which is likely to become available in a month or so. Today, Daryl will get his first shot of the Moderna vaccine. As an educator he is part of the essential work force. UCSB has its own clinic to administer shots for its employees. A big day for us! 

Political Drama and a Pandemic

January 14, 2021

The House of Representatives made history yesterday when they impeached Donald Trump for the 2nd time exactly one week after the Capitol insurrection. The Democrats, led by Nancy Pelosi, did an admirable job of efficiently following the law laid down by the Constitution. Ten GOP members chose principle over politics and supported the effort. No matter what happens in the Senate - 17 Republicans would have to show integrity - Trump has been disgraced and diminished. It's going to be interesting to see what happens to the Republican Party from here on. 

When I emigrated to the US I experienced for the first time a free society where I was able to enter spaces closed to me in apartheid South Africa. I flourished intellectually and personally. Now the country's character has changed. The world has changed. We've been gradually shifting toward divisiveness and the Trump era has fueled right wing fringe movements. Their nationalistic fervor, their disdain for democratic norms, and their eager embrace of violence have shaken the foundational principles of this nation. Is this expression of extremism a corollary of Trumpism? Will it ebb in the next years? Will millennials become more prominent and steer us toward a healthier society? Or is what we're witnessing only the beginning? An overpopulated planet, a technological revolution, social media platforms - have these doomed us to a dystopian future?

In 6 days Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be inaugurated. Can't wait to begin this new chapter. But Trump's base is out there. They were deceived by a shockingly large number of Republican leaders and this unsophisticated segment of the population, easily influenced by conspiracy outlets, truly believe that the election was rigged.

Then there's the pandemic. The darkest days are here. California, the UK, Germany and South Africa continue to record heart stopping numbers of new daily cases. The UK and South African Variants of Concern have spread to a large number of countries. Now there's news of a new Brazil variant of concern. The good news is that there are plans to ramp up vaccinations here in our county and state. Just a few more months of this ...

January 15

Unnervingly hot today - in the 80's. A warm spell and dry weather, though enjoyable in midwinter, fills us with apprehension, especially when a red flag warning is issued. But there's hope of rain next weekend, thankfully. Also thankful that Joe Biden has taken the spotlight. Yesterday in a nationally broadcast address he proposed a $1.9 billion rescue package to address the pandemic and the economic fall out. Congress will have to get to work at once. We are starved for leadership. Can't wait. 

January 19

Trump's last full day in office. We're thrilled. But we are anxious too. We're worried. We're miserable. Normal life is still a dream. The pandemic rages on all over the globe. But it seems like the darkest days are behind us. New daily Covid infections appear to be on a decline in the state and country. Below 200,00 daily new cases in the US and around 35,000 in California. Today we reached a total of 400,000 deaths. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will attend an event in DC this evening to honor the dead. I'm heartened to see South Africa's numbers going down too - from over 20,000 daily new infections to just under 10,000 yesterday. Experts warn that the new variants emerging could impact the situation here, so safety measures may tighten. Vaccine hurdles have hampered progress too. Today California had to stop administering Moderna vaccines due to a cluster of adverse reactions. My heart sinks lower and lower as disappointing news keeps coming.

Tomorrow Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th president of the United States. Due to the pandemic there won't be a crowd in the mall to participate in celebrations. Instead rows of flags have been arranged to represent the missing crowd. Also, due to the Jan 6 insurrection, the site of the ceremony is surrounded by 25,000 National Guard soldiers who have been vetted by the FBI. What a sad situation. The most patriotic, quintessential American event has to be protected from domestic citizens. The inevitable effects of Trump's incendiary words and actions. Tomorrow, a new chapter begins.

Capitol Disaster

 January 5

CNN's Website Headlines January 5, 2021

A tense day as we await the results of today's election. The Democratic contenders are superior in every way to the two corrupt incumbents but Georgia is a red state and Trump is their god. The weekend's scandalous phone call to Georgia's Secretary of State in which he was asked to falsify the presidential election outcome energized Trump's base. It's utterly breathtaking to witness the attack on democracy, especially with the support of a significant percentage of Republican members of Congress. Ted Cruz is leading a rebel group to reject states' electoral vote at the January 6 final congressional procedure to confirm Joe Biden's win. Trump is now pleading with Vice President Pence to bend the prescribed rules and reject tomorrow's verdict. This shameless, dangerous behavior while we're in the darkest days of the pandemic!

Months ago, in the fall we had to adjust our daily routines as the days grew shorter and cooler. Now, the winter solstice behind us, we're adapting to chillier mornings and sunsets a minute later each day. It's more cumbersome to dress up for my daily morning runs. After a mile I have to yank off my excellent Marmot all weather outer layer. The cool air is refreshing, and this morning the air was infused with deeper scents of pine and redwoods released by the recent rain. A red shouldered hawk fluttered above me and settled on a branch of a redwood. A soothing time and unbeatable way to start the day during a pandemic. Rest assured as Covid news develops through the day anxiety settles and grows ...

In the first January issue of The New Yorker there's an interesting piece called The Plague Year by Lawrence Wright. It's lengthy, detailing the various strands that emerged and influenced Covid's trajectory. Wright points to 3 moments when events may have turned out differently in the pandemic. The first moment was in early January when the head of China's CDC alerted Robert Redfield to the new coronavirus. Redfield assembled a team of CDC researchers to go to China and study the situation, but China refused to grant permission. The 2nd significant moment was the testing fiasco. Testing kits had to come from the CDC and because of their limited capabilities only a small number of kits were available. In February, just as the virus was seeding itself in the US hospitals received faulty test kits and were instructed to test only patients who satisfied a narrow set of criteria. The 3rd moment was the issue of masks. They should've been mandated early on, with a strong national, unified backing. It's now been a year since the genome of the SARS-COV2 virus has been sequenced. Wright's account of the politics behind the pandemic which got us to where we are is worth reading. 

January 6 I have NPR on as I scan photos from pre-digital times - a project I've been working on for the past month. Normally I listen to classical music but today I want to follow the developments as Congress meets to certify Joe Biden as the winner of the presidential election. It's now 12:50 PST and I'm hearing about a terrifying scene unfolding in Washington DC. MAGA nutcases are storming the US Capitol. The joint session of Congress had to evacuate the chamber and escape to safety. Incited by Trump at a rally on the Ellipse outside the White House this morning, his faithful supporters now executing his wishes. I immediately check CNN live and hear the alarm in the voices of the announcers. 

January 7

The 25th amendment is splashed across news media. If there ever was a time to use it, this is it. But it would require action from Trump's lackeys - Mike Pence and cabinet members. It has to happen now as there are 13 days left of an unhinged president with too much power.

On CNN's Website January 7, 2021

We can now add January 6, 2021 to the list of "Most Infamous Dates in US History". The only other time rioters stormed the US Capitol was in the 1812 war against England. All afternoon yesterday news sites showed images of a mob rushing into the Capitol, breaching security, climbing walls, breaking windows, looting offices. Some armed. Gunshots fired by law enforcement. A woman killed. Three others dead, causes unknown. A few pipe bombs found. 

Today there are questions of why the mob was able to so easily break into the Capitol. Why was security so inadequate despite the threats? Trump has been encouraging violent action for weeks, so why was no preparation made for this?

Leaders from around the world expressed their horror. This beacon of democracy sinking to the level of corrupt third world governments. So many lessons to draw from this. How is it that 74 million Americans felt perfectly fine about voting for someone so corrupt, so unhinged from reality? A lunatic bleating on and on that the election was stolen from him while he makes every attempt to steal it. When he finally posted a video message yesterday during the siege he urged his supporters to go home but in the next sentence claimed he won by a landslide. He ended by telling these thugs that he loved them and that they are special. This really happened. Years from now when we recall this we'll be shaking our heads, incredulous that we lived through this ugly time in history. Twitter froze Trump's account for 12 hours. Facebook and Instagram followed suit.

January 11

When I started this blog entry 6 days ago, before the attempted coup, the nation was already in a crisis. Overwhelmed hospitals, inadequate health care professionals, soaring daily new Covid infections and daily deaths reaching 4000. States had to deal with all sorts of hurdles in their vaccination programs. Then, a day later, the very foundation of this nation was tested and Covid receded from the headlines. Democracy won on Jan 6 when Congress reconvened later and certified their states' electoral votes, but the cost we've been learning each new day since, has been mind numbing. As horrific as the Capitol insurrection was in real time, as more video footage surfaces, we're learning that the intended scale of violence was even greater. In one video there are chants of "Hang Pence!" The reason: he wouldn't budge from his constitutional obligation to read out Joe Biden's name as the winner of the 2020 election. Nancy Pelosi was a prime target too. Armed individuals intended committing atrocious acts of violence. Trump's base. Warmed up and encouraged by their master earlier that day. A cop was bludgeoned to death by a fire extinguisher. Another cop was crushed against a doorway. The "citadel of democracy" was desecrated in other appalling ways too - damage to valuable objects, theft, some even defecated in hallways and offices. Now may we call them "deplorables"? Will someone please apologize to Hillary?

Twitter and other social media platforms have permanently muzzled Trump and it is truly wonderful not to hear any new appalling crap from him.

The past 5 days have been consumed by discussion of how to remove Trump from office immediately. An unhinged, deranged person holding the highest office with the power to start a nuclear war is frighteningNancy Pelosi has taken charge. Mike Pence and other Republican leaders are still too focused on their own political aspirations so there's no hope that the 25th amendment will be invoked. Republican leaders have shown us long ago that they have no intention of preserving the democratic ideals of this country. Power to execute their desires is all that matters. Republicans in congress could do a lot to unify the country by working with the Democrats to do the right thing and impeach Trump, but only a few are cooperating. It's shocking, sad, frustrating. House Democrats have drafted articles of impeachment and are planning a vote on Wednesday. They expect it to pass. It will then be up to the Senate to act, but a two thirds majority is needed for conviction. Don't hold your breath!

Nine more days before adults lead the country again.

Meanwhile the Covid crisis in California continues. It's distressing to be in the global epicenter of the pandemic. South of us - the greater Los Angeles area- hospitals and medical staff are overburdened. The state's daily new case numbers have plateaued at over 30,000. Ouch! Each day I keep hoping to hear more promising vaccine news. Centers are being prepared for efficient deployment so I'm definitely hopeful. I hope my entries in a few weeks will carry a more upbeat tone.

A New Year and Hopes are Sky High

 January 4

After delivering blow after blow 2020 gifted us with 3 inches of rain before departing. For days after the heavy downpour our spirits were high. On the last day of the year we drove out to Refugio Beach where we were able to go on a long stroll due to a well timed low tide. We witnessed a glorious final sunset of the year. It reminded us of our Thailand trip 2 years ago. People in that part of the world we learned deem it significant to catch the year's final sunset.

Adios 2020 from Refugio Beach - tranquil and pretty

At midnight on December 31, the entire world yelled out a unified "Good riddance!" But, no, the virus did not vanish with the arrival of 2021. Our despair is at its greatest. California's lockdown has been extended and our daily new cases and deaths are at frightening highs. 

In the UK there are over 50,000 daily new infections driven by the new variant of concern (VOC). Today, the entire entire country went into lockdown to avoid overwhelming the health care facilities. Another piece of depressing news is that Britain has officially broken from the EU as of midnight Dec 31. Ouch!

South Africa has been recording around 10,000 new daily Covid cases. Their new VOC is of greater concern due to more drastic changes and scientists are questioning whether vaccines will be effective on patients with this mutated virus. Alarming indeed! Only yesterday the South African Health Minister addressed the nation on live TV to announce plans for a February vaccine rollout. Hopefully, by then researchers will have better information.

The vaccine roll out in the USA has been anything but smooth. Of course with a leadership vacuum at the national level this is hardly surprising though incredibly aggravating. The UK has begun administering the Astrazeneca Oxford vaccine today. This vaccine is still in Phase 3 trials in the USA and approval won't happen until the data is available. Another cause for frustration. Johnson and Johnson have completed enrollment for their vaccine and results are expected in February. If it's successful I'm sure the Covid situation will turn around in this country.

This holiday period we went out for daily walks at Refugio Beach and El Capitan late in the day. In seeking out free parking near the exit we stumbled upon the fantastic Bill Wallace Trail.

Bill Wallace Trail

This wide trail climbs steadily so that you're looking at a breathtaking canyon as you draw deep breaths of clean air. On the downhill return the coastline view is most exhilarating, especially at sunset. Of course, midwinter temperatures and afternoon shade helped. I'm already impatient for the spring wildflowers on these slopes. We'll need rain for that.

The new quarter has started for UCSB and Daryl is once again busy teaching via Zoom from his home office. Pandemic life continues.