29 January 2021

Covid Winter of our Discontent

January 25, 2021

Giddy times. President Joe Biden in his first week in office working tirelessly to stop the bleeding. Over 30 executive orders have been signed already to reverse Trump era policy. A reboot, a reset. Covers of news magazines have exploited the metaphor. Biden pushing a lawnmower over the Capitol, transforming drabness to brightness. Biden with a broom in a disastrously messy oval office. But the overwhelming concern is getting the nation vaccinated against Covid. The experts are hard at work. We can be assured that we'll arrive at success in the most efficient manner possible.

I woke up with a smile today for lots of reasons. A series of storms are sweeping through California, the effects of an atmospheric river. Finally. The stubborn high pressure system that gave us warm, dry weather most of January has disappeared. It rained yesterday and this morning. And heavy rain is forecast for much of the week. Yippee!!! Ferocious winds whipped through the night, rattling our bedroom window pane, torturing our trees. Temperatures dipped. We heard there's snow on mountain passes in Ojai. Thick snow blankets the Sierras.

Covid data has been promising too. Daily new infections and deaths have continued to decline nationwide and statewide. The trends are looking good in South Africa too. Experts warn against complacency. The UK and much of Europe, under a stricter lockdown, are struggling with their situation due to the UK variant (B.1.1.7) and since this variant is present in the US our numbers could suddenly spike too. Yikes! Active research is being conducted on the South African variant against the Moderna vaccine. The current belief is that this variant will have a weakened response. Fast action has never felt more urgent. It appears, thankfully, that optimism isn't entirely a fantasy.

In the afternoon Governor Newsom announced the removal of the "Stay At Home" order issued in early December. Based on current trends the state is no longer in danger of running out of hospital beds. Our daily new cases are still twice as high as the peak of the 2nd wave back in August, but Newsom has obviously bowed to pressure from businesses, especially restaurant owners who were threatening to sue him. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place! In any case the color coded tier system will resume in California and much of the state will continue to be in the stricter purple tier. Outdoor dining will resume and retail will open up with safety measures. Combined with a greater focus on vaccination there's reason to feel hopeful about the near future. I can't wait to be in a crowded place again! I'm impatient for the freedom to enter a random store, unmasked, and fearlessly wander up and down the aisles.

For the first time since March 2020 when we went into lockdown the weather prevented me from outdoor exercise. Cold, breezy, with intermittent showers - a typical winter day to be spent indoors by the fire. 

January 29

Elevated levels of endorphins flow in my veins. The result of my morning run in Stow Park after a 3 day pause due to a massive storm dumping heavy rain intermittently. Over a 3 day period we were blessed with 6 inches of rain. Heavy winds, off and on, resulted in tree branches scattered everywhere, but other than that our area hasn't suffered much damage.

Covid dominates the news. Daily case numbers are on a decline in California and the US, as well as in South Africa and much of Europe. This helps quell my anxiety. Also, it's an immense comfort to know that we now have strong leadership and competent people in charge of addressing our crisis. The news of another successful vaccine candidate has been uplifting too. This vaccine, by Johnson and Johnson, is less effective than the mRNA candidates, demonstrating 72% success in the USA and just under 60% in South Africa (the mutant there affirming concerns of its resistance) but provides an additional tool in the fight. It requires one shot only and its easier to store.

These positive developments make it easier to face the grim new challenges of emerging variants of concern. The SA variant has been detected in the USA now - a result of community transmission - so experts are warning of setbacks. We are in a race against rising infections driven by variants of concern and vaccine production which is woefully slow.

EU countries are in despair because AstroZeneca isn't delivering on their promise - likely due to hurdles at their Belgium manufacturing plant.

It's clear that the challenges of vaccine production and administration on a global scale is what 2021 is going to be all about.

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