19 February 2021

Covid Trends Looking Hopeful

February 15, 2021

Though we aren't into fluffy holidays like Valentine's Day we actually had a beautiful day with minimal effort. Sunny, mild weather was ideal for a long beach stroll. Refugio Beach has become our favorite choice because it's never busy and we can completely relax. The tide was at its lowest when we arrived late in the day and this allowed us to walk further than we'd ever done. A massive dolphin pod put on a show, enhancing the glorious setting. We could've walked all the way to El Capitan, but daylight was rapidly fading. Sunset at around 5:50 was magnificently romantic, capping a memorable 5 mile stroll.

At home we drank chilled, fizzy Crémant with a meal of plant based cutlets, roasted broccolini, and pasta tossed in sautéed leeks and spinach. The dessert was decent too - apple pie and ice cream. For evening entertainment we started Season 2 of "My Brilliant Friend". Season 1 made a huge impression on us. Such an exquisite execution with a stellar cast.

I shopped at Trader Joe's a few days ago for the first time in two months. What a thrill to glide up and down aisles and re-acquaint myself with old favorites! Made me realize that a return to normal life, when we're able to go wherever we want, will more than make up for sacrificing international travel for another year.

Everyday I browse the latest articles in The Atlantic. There's always so much good stuff available. Yesterday I enjoyed reading a discussion held by a group who've been reporting on Covid for the magazine. The theme was whether we can now be optimistic that things will keep improving. The takeaway was that if current safety protocols remained there will be dramatic improvement toward a post-pandemic future. However, red state governors are already loosening restrictions and removing mask mandates. Then, there are the variants. Some experts are predicting the B117 will become dominant in the USA in March.

We'll know much more in March.

Mum updated me this morning on South Africa's vaccine handwringing. They're attempting to sell the AstroZeneca supply they'd received from India, an April expiry date lending urgency. They will roll out the Johnson and Johnson candidate next week and are hopeful about continued new supplies to allow them to vaccinate everyone before the end of the year. Their protocols during the December surge appear effective gauging from continued positive trend lines.

Mum also remarked on a spike in the price of ginger and garlic. Everyone there believes these condiments offer Covid protection causing a capitalistic supply/demand situation. Mum was pleased to have acquired a bulk amount of ginger from a door to door vendor from the farming area of Weenen. She's been drinking turmeric stirred into diluted milk everyday too.

There's been much media hype in South Africa around Ivermectin for treating Covid. Here, in the US, nobody is saying much about this drug due to a lack of conclusive or compelling studies. Licensing and patenting laws have prevented production of Ivermectin in South Africa and this has led to a blackmarket. Now they are being warned of probable harmful ingredients in the products acquired via the blackmarket.

February 17

This pandemic period is unfolding like a suspenseful plot driven novel. Tension never lets up. Good news always accompanied by some new stressful development. This week, as our Covid infections decline and increasing numbers of people are receiving their vaccine shots, a severe snowstorm has crippled a large swathe of the country. Texas is especially badly hit, due to damage to its power grid. Much of the state is without power right when they are in the midst of freezing and below freezing temperatures. Vaccinations have to be halted. Vaccine deliveries have also been hampered, slowing down the process nationwide.

The West Coast has been spared from that nasty storm system. Instead, our days are warm and sunny. The air is infused with spring scents - blossoms and blooms typical of late February. Asparagus season has just started and it's on our menu tonight. 

No sign of rain, though, and that is dispiriting. We'll have to accept that this will be another dry winter. Five of the last 20 winters have been dry. We ought to reconcile ourselves to the unpleasant reality that this part of California is more desert than we'd like to admit.

A happy news item today was the smooth landing of a news Mars rover called Perseverance. We watched the live reactions of the NASA/JPL team while it happened and their joy boosted our moods. A reminder of what life is like when it isn't dominated by the pandemic or by politics. 

South Africa received its shipment of Johnson and Johnson vaccine and immediately went to work jabbing health care workers. Because it's officially a trial they didn't have to wait for approval from government regulators. If the researchers are satisfied with this candidate they'll move forward with full implementation of their phased program.

It's a great feeling to be on the other side of our 2nd wave, to see infection rates drop to manageable numbers. A practical effect is that I can shop at grocery stores in person again. I'll still choose to go at opening time when it's quiet. I'll still be cautious in my daily activities. A month from now life may be a whole lot better. But it could well be worse. Lower numbers lead to loosening of protocols which quickly returns us to an unsafe state.

There's discussion about opening up schools. Such a tricky issue. Of course it's best for kids and for parents and for society for schools to open up. Teachers ought to have inoculation priority over the 65 to 75 year olds. That demographic is retired and can stay home safely. I guess it will be ongoing battle to determine how to prioritize who gets the vaccine next.




09 February 2021

Pandemic Woes

 02/02/21

Browsing the headlines every morning bestows little assurance of an imminent rosy scenario. Vaccine hiccups and more transmissible mutants dominate Covid news. Meanwhile daily new infections everywhere are on a decline and restrictions are loosening. The peaks in California and the USA had been so high that we still have a long way to go to return to pre November numbers. In January we recorded the highest number of Covid deaths than any other month. Not a great start to 2021, but unlike a year ago, we can justifiably expect things to get better. More vaccines will soon be authorized for use and production of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are ramping up. The Biden administration is hard at work addressing the issues.

South Africa received its first vaccine shipment yesterday (Feb 1, 2021). A million doses of the AstroZeneca vaccine from India which has one of the world's biggest vaccine manufacturing facilities. There was much excitement in the country with this news dominating the headlines and conversations. The country's declining new Covid infections has been heartening and has led to a loosening of restrictions.

In other news, the Republican party is wrestling with their identity. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a newly elected Congresswoman, has been making bizarre assertions about 9/11, school shootings and the Clintons and Mitch McConnnell was forced to condemn her. Now the Senate is getting ready for Trump's impeachment trial. It's been blissful not hearing from Trump, but the trial next week will, unfortunately, return him to the spotlight.

Feb 7, 2021

Disappointing news from South Africa. Results from an AstroZeneca trial conducted by Wits University show that this vaccine is ineffective in preventing mild to moderate infection against the B.1.351 variant which is now dominant in the country. Rollout of this vaccine now has to be halted while the country's experts figure out next steps. In a live Webinar broadcast on national TV a panel of experts provided information about the latest findings of current vaccine candidates, which, on the whole, aren't great. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine appears to prevent serious illness and will be rolled out to healthcare workers in a controlled measure. While the vaccine companies have provided assurances that booster shots will be available by the fall, the delay is a downer.

Here, in California, hospital and ICU capacity is no longer a concern. It's such a relief to be past our peak. I haven't been inside a grocery store for 2 months now. We're managing pretty well. Sprouts, Albertsons and Ralphs all have convenient online shopping portals and deliver to your car at a scheduled time. But I can't wait for a stable phase when I can physically enter Trader Joe's and select items. Don't know if that will happen before I get vaccinated. Variants of concern could gain a foothold here and mess up our trend lines. The March to May period is uncertain. Vaccine manufacturing can only occur at a certain speed and it'll be late spring before many of us will be offered our first shot. 

Covid has hijacked my dreams at night. Once I dreamt I was in a crowd where everyone was masked except me and they were all giving me nasty looks. In a different dream I was masked in a public area close to people who were totally oblivious of safety measures. The latest vaccine news and other Covid data gets incorporated into my dreams. Always, there's anxiety. So even though daily life is smooth the unstable state of the world is very much in my consciousness.

Last March when we first went into lockdown we upgraded our home entertainment, adding Acorn TV to our streaming menu. We've seen some excellent series produced and set all over the globe. We just finished Season 2 of a heartwarming BBC series called "The Indian Doctor". Uncannily, the 5 episodes which were made about 10 years ago, brought up the very issues we are currently dealing with and it's like watching a microcosm of today's Covid world. A smallpox outbreak in the Welsh village where the story is set places the doctor in the role of Cassandra. The resistance he faces, especially from the newly arrived priest, mirrors current challenges thrown at government leaders and health experts. Interesting! 

Meanwhile, the days are lengthening and the recent storm has livened up the garden and mountain slopes. The worst of winter is behind us. 

Feb 9, 2021

Today's news dominated by the start of Trump's impeachment trial in the Senate. Trying to tune it out. His absence from our lives has been blissful but in the next 2 weeks reminders of his toxicity will be forced on us. The Senate has no choice but to hold him accountable even though everyone knows there won't be a conviction. Perhaps there will be good long term outcomes nevertheless.

A year ago I was paying close attention to Wuhan under lockdown. I was impressed at the strict measures taken by the Chinese government, but at the same time shuddered at the authoritarian approach. While I felt terrible for the residents imprisoned in their homes, I felt that these containment measures were benefitting the rest of the world. What naïveté! Today, Wuhan's residents are living pretty normal lives and have been since they came out of their lockdown in April last year. Apart from random outbreaks that were instantly dealt with, China didn't experience waves of disease surge like much of the world. Everyday I pore through the numbers of Covid infections on the Worldometers website. It's a good feeling to be in a downward slide. The US for the first time since November 2020 has dropped to below 100,000 new daily infections. Yesterday California recorded under 10,000 new cases. We've finally returned to a number we saw back during the summer surge. But these encouraging numbers by no means eases my anxiety. The past ten months have taught us that trends are ephemeral. 

Currently, 2 phenomena are of concern. The sluggish pace of vaccinations and variants of concern which may resist vaccines. South Africans are nursing the big blow from the results of the small AstraZeneca study. The shipment that arrived last week has to be used by April. The current plan is a staggered approach in which they'll vaccinate 100,000 older nurses and monitor outcomes. If the vaccine prevents severe disease then everyone can breathe a sigh of relief.

I didn't expect the ending phase of the pandemic to be this distressing. It's astonishing that so many things can go wrong.