Pandemic Woes

 02/02/21

Browsing the headlines every morning bestows little assurance of an imminent rosy scenario. Vaccine hiccups and more transmissible mutants dominate Covid news. Meanwhile daily new infections everywhere are on a decline and restrictions are loosening. The peaks in California and the USA had been so high that we still have a long way to go to return to pre November numbers. In January we recorded the highest number of Covid deaths than any other month. Not a great start to 2021, but unlike a year ago, we can justifiably expect things to get better. More vaccines will soon be authorized for use and production of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are ramping up. The Biden administration is hard at work addressing the issues.

South Africa received its first vaccine shipment yesterday (Feb 1, 2021). A million doses of the AstroZeneca vaccine from India which has one of the world's biggest vaccine manufacturing facilities. There was much excitement in the country with this news dominating the headlines and conversations. The country's declining new Covid infections has been heartening and has led to a loosening of restrictions.

In other news, the Republican party is wrestling with their identity. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a newly elected Congresswoman, has been making bizarre assertions about 9/11, school shootings and the Clintons and Mitch McConnnell was forced to condemn her. Now the Senate is getting ready for Trump's impeachment trial. It's been blissful not hearing from Trump, but the trial next week will, unfortunately, return him to the spotlight.

Feb 7, 2021

Disappointing news from South Africa. Results from an AstroZeneca trial conducted by Wits University show that this vaccine is ineffective in preventing mild to moderate infection against the B.1.351 variant which is now dominant in the country. Rollout of this vaccine now has to be halted while the country's experts figure out next steps. In a live Webinar broadcast on national TV a panel of experts provided information about the latest findings of current vaccine candidates, which, on the whole, aren't great. The Johnson and Johnson vaccine appears to prevent serious illness and will be rolled out to healthcare workers in a controlled measure. While the vaccine companies have provided assurances that booster shots will be available by the fall, the delay is a downer.

Here, in California, hospital and ICU capacity is no longer a concern. It's such a relief to be past our peak. I haven't been inside a grocery store for 2 months now. We're managing pretty well. Sprouts, Albertsons and Ralphs all have convenient online shopping portals and deliver to your car at a scheduled time. But I can't wait for a stable phase when I can physically enter Trader Joe's and select items. Don't know if that will happen before I get vaccinated. Variants of concern could gain a foothold here and mess up our trend lines. The March to May period is uncertain. Vaccine manufacturing can only occur at a certain speed and it'll be late spring before many of us will be offered our first shot. 

Covid has hijacked my dreams at night. Once I dreamt I was in a crowd where everyone was masked except me and they were all giving me nasty looks. In a different dream I was masked in a public area close to people who were totally oblivious of safety measures. The latest vaccine news and other Covid data gets incorporated into my dreams. Always, there's anxiety. So even though daily life is smooth the unstable state of the world is very much in my consciousness.

Last March when we first went into lockdown we upgraded our home entertainment, adding Acorn TV to our streaming menu. We've seen some excellent series produced and set all over the globe. We just finished Season 2 of a heartwarming BBC series called "The Indian Doctor". Uncannily, the 5 episodes which were made about 10 years ago, brought up the very issues we are currently dealing with and it's like watching a microcosm of today's Covid world. A smallpox outbreak in the Welsh village where the story is set places the doctor in the role of Cassandra. The resistance he faces, especially from the newly arrived priest, mirrors current challenges thrown at government leaders and health experts. Interesting! 

Meanwhile, the days are lengthening and the recent storm has livened up the garden and mountain slopes. The worst of winter is behind us. 

Feb 9, 2021

Today's news dominated by the start of Trump's impeachment trial in the Senate. Trying to tune it out. His absence from our lives has been blissful but in the next 2 weeks reminders of his toxicity will be forced on us. The Senate has no choice but to hold him accountable even though everyone knows there won't be a conviction. Perhaps there will be good long term outcomes nevertheless.

A year ago I was paying close attention to Wuhan under lockdown. I was impressed at the strict measures taken by the Chinese government, but at the same time shuddered at the authoritarian approach. While I felt terrible for the residents imprisoned in their homes, I felt that these containment measures were benefitting the rest of the world. What naïveté! Today, Wuhan's residents are living pretty normal lives and have been since they came out of their lockdown in April last year. Apart from random outbreaks that were instantly dealt with, China didn't experience waves of disease surge like much of the world. Everyday I pore through the numbers of Covid infections on the Worldometers website. It's a good feeling to be in a downward slide. The US for the first time since November 2020 has dropped to below 100,000 new daily infections. Yesterday California recorded under 10,000 new cases. We've finally returned to a number we saw back during the summer surge. But these encouraging numbers by no means eases my anxiety. The past ten months have taught us that trends are ephemeral. 

Currently, 2 phenomena are of concern. The sluggish pace of vaccinations and variants of concern which may resist vaccines. South Africans are nursing the big blow from the results of the small AstraZeneca study. The shipment that arrived last week has to be used by April. The current plan is a staggered approach in which they'll vaccinate 100,000 older nurses and monitor outcomes. If the vaccine prevents severe disease then everyone can breathe a sigh of relief.

I didn't expect the ending phase of the pandemic to be this distressing. It's astonishing that so many things can go wrong.