02/22/2021
The date looks pretty today!
On this spring-like day (still no sign of rain) the mood out here in California is positive. A 5 week decline of new Covid infections fills us with hope. As increasing numbers are vaccinated - farm workers in our area have started receiving their shots - another surge appears unlikely. Much of California is still in the purple tier. Our county hasn't yet met the criteria for entry into a less restrictive tier. We're sure to get there soon.
Today, President Biden paid respects to the 500,000 lives lost to the pandemic. He's such a decent gentleman. It's clear that his daily calendar is crammed with actions addressing the nation's problems.
The topic of opening up schools in California is being hotly debated. Both the left and the right are pressuring Gavin Newsom. The right are using school closures to strengthen their argument to recall the governor. But teachers' unions are sticking to their demands that teachers should be prioritized for vaccination and school campuses need to comply with Covid safety measures. The CDC has issued guidelines on safely opening up schools. Low case numbers are a criterion and our state isn't there yet. Newsom has expanded opportunity for teachers to be vaccinated. However, vaccine inventory is low so there's only so much he can do! In another 2 months vaccine supply is expected to be robust. By then the school year will be almost over. Hence the urgency.
Feb 23
When I opened my eyes this morning the bedroom was bright. Winter is definitely out the door. A spell of summer temperatures is unnerving. Rain, please!
When I looked at CNN's live updates (as I do every morning and periodically through the day) gloomy coronavirus forecasts were replaced by vaccination progress around the globe. Each new day, another country begins its vaccination program. Companies have committed to production levels that more or less guarantees summer travel. At this point international travel is still uncertain. Boris Johnson predicts the UK could see a return to normal life by the end of June. We hope to visit family in England in August, but if things go wrong, we are sure we'll be able to go on a car trip up north into Oregon, visiting and staying with friends along the way. We'll be in Berkeley on Sabbatical in the fall and we're very excited about that. That we can even entertain these prospects says a lot about where we are in the pandemic.
Compared to December/January numbers, the steep decline is most heartening. New covid infections today: USA 59,000; California 5,000; South Africa 800
February 26
Currently, there's much media discussion about the pandemic's trajectory. What will spring, summer and fall look like? Spring appears to be the big question mark, mainly due to variants of concern. The California variant has troubling mutations. It was this variant that drove our horrendous November/December surge. Since genomic surveillance has been minimal, it was only after the UK and South Africa sounded alarm bells over their variants of concern that domestic mutations were observed. These mutants have spread nationwide. Experts are worried that the Covid picture could change in March as a result. So, of course we can't sit back and relax and believe current trends will hold. In fact, this week new daily infections nationwide have hit a plateau of around 72,000. Still a frightening number. In California our downward trend continues and our 14 day positivity rate is 2.9%. That elicits a huge sigh of relief. We are sure to move to the red tier soon. In fact, Santa Barbara elementary schools are opening up for in person teaching on March 1. Huge step.
The good news could continue, or the variants could play havoc with us for a while until vaccinations ramp up.
Summer, according to pieces I've read in The Atlantic and The New York Times, is likely to be normal. Herd immunity through vaccinations is expected by July if the vaccine companies stick to their commitments.
Fall is expected to be largely normal. Winter could be like pre-pandemic times. But since children won't be inoculated until late in the year, an optimistic scenario can't be guaranteed. Also, other countries may experience vaccine shortages and as long as the virus is still out there question marks will remain.
The situation in the EU block looks surprisingly worrisome. France leveled off at 20,000 new daily infections (too high) and then in the last day or two are seeing a rise. Germans aren't flocking to their vaccination centers for the AstraZeneca jabs. Bad press in January is blamed. More surprising, Angela Merkel is declining this vaccine, citing her age. What is going on? Germans are demanding their homegrown Pfizer vaccine and are asking why it isn't available to them?
Nobody in the US is talking about the AstraZeneca vaccine. What's the status of our trials? Have we ruled it out?
March 1
The ongoing warm spell has us convinced that spring is here - too early. Our patio furniture is out of storage. Premi and Sri joined us for dinner which they provided (exquisite curries, methi roti, dhal makni) and it definitely felt like we were at a new stage of the pandemic. I was the only one of the 4 of us not yet vaccinated. This could change in another 2 months. Not wishful thinking according to the news articles about companies promising deliveries in the next weeks and months. The Johnson and Johnson vaccines are on trucks today on their way to vaccination sites all over the country. In California it's likely that teachers will be vaccinated before the end of March.
It's gratifying to wake up to sunny news and positive assurances each new day. However, the CDC has been expressing concern at the leveling off of Covid trends nationwide. Of greater concern is that the daily new infections are still too high - close to 70,000 - which back in the fall had us freaking out. In fact, new infections in New York, Texas and Florida are rising. This is the month that will determine the impact of the variants with concerning mutations. Epidemiologists are expecting a surge. But it won't be like winter. The worst is behind us. Many of the most vulnerable are now vaccinated and another large number have natural immunity. A month from now a bigger chunk of the population will be vaccinated.
In summary, one more month of either uncertainty or gloom, before the picture brightens. I can do it!
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