Covid 19 Diary for 2nd Half of April 2020
April 15
Best news this morning: Dr. Kizzmekia Corbett, lead scientist for Covid 19 vaccine research of the National Institute for Health indicated on CNN that a vaccine may be ready in the fall for emergency workers. She hopes that if this vaccine is successful it will be administered worldwide in the spring of 2021. This vaccine she said arises from 5 years of research on corona viruses.
Depressing News: Trump suspends WHO funding. The US is responsible for 10% of the WHO budget and this would be crippling in the midst of a pandemic. Blame is his favorite defense and now he claims that the WHO hadn't given the world proper warnings and information back in January.
Yesterday Governor Newsom outlined 6 criteria for releasing California from its lockdown.
1. Capacity to expand testing
2. Protecting the vulnerable from infection;
3. The ability for hospitals to handle surges;
4. The ability to develop therapeutic drugs to meet demand;
5. The ability for businesses, schools and childcare facilities to handle physical distancing;
6. The ability to reinstitute 'stay at home' orders if the need arises.
Total identified cases in California today: 26,836 and 864 deaths. Today's deaths: 82. In Santa Barbara County: 321 cases and 2 deaths. New York's numbers: 214,648 total; Deaths 11, 586; Today's deaths 752
A news article today praised 3 female leaders for the Covid 19 success in their countries. Taiwan, Germany and New Zealand have low death rates and low new cases due to early action and sound scientifically driven policies. Made me even more bitter about the November 2016 elections. Hillary would surely have been included in that article.
April 16
My sentiments were confirmed this morning when I heard Hillary Clinton on NPR's "On Point" hosted by Magna Chakrabathy. I heard only 5 minutes of this, on my drive home from Stow Park where I'd just gone for my morning run. But every word she uttered showed how different things would have gone in the US. She said (I'm paraphrasing), "This impatience to open up the economy reminds me of a toddler on a long drive to Grandma's who keeps asking are we there yet are we there yet!" She criticized the PPE fiasco and states outbidding each other for essential supplies. It was the job of the federal government to ensure the entire country had what it needed. And she expressed the importance of focusing on next spring when a vaccine became available and how it would be administered to every single person.
It's mid April and now I understand that normal life won't return for at least a year. I'm predicting that in early May Newsom may lift some restrictions in California. Survival depends on supply chains back in action. So some businesses will open up again. Physical distancing will continue to be practiced.
April 20
It's been about a month of "stay at home" for much of the world. Everyone is antsy. When will this end? Over the weekend right wing protestors made news, demanding an end to the policy. How dumb is our species?
Heartwarming weekend news in contrast was the "One World: Together at Home" virtual concert, 8 hours long, organized by Lady Gaga. 70 celebrities and singers honored frontline healthcare workers. Funds for this were raised in advance and donated to WHO. A highlight was a rendition of "The Prayer" sung in 4 part harmony by Andrea Bocelli, Lady Gaga, Celine Dion and John Legend with Lang Lang at the piano. Each performer at their own house.
When does it end? Infectious diseases specialist have mentioned a sequence of steps to handle a pandemic: mitigation, suppression, herd immunity. Much of the developed world appears to be flattening their curves and will soon be in the suppression phase. Australia, South Africa and New Zealand are reporting small numbers of new cases and deaths. Germany's low fatalities and aggressive testing may well lead the way to how we return to normal. Right now they are trying out door to door antibody testing in a few cities.
We are guessing that governments will ease restrictions when no new local cases are reported for 2 weeks - like China. There may be waves until a treatment and vaccine come to our rescue. Nowadays I pay less attention to total numbers and instead I look at new cases and daily death totals - more reliable metrics toward freedom.
I've been able to fill my days with satisfying activities so, even though I can't wait for this situation to end, I'm aware of how much easier it is for me. There's so much beautiful nature within easy access. We went on nature trails early morning before breakfast on Saturday and Sunday. Ellwood Bluffs, early on a spring morning after recent rains smells of fennel and eucalyptus. The sight of the ocean is so uplifting. We went down to the beach and walked on the soft sand, sucking up pure, salty air. The sandpipers were delightful to watch as they did their dance beside the water. Plenty of other early walkers and dog owners were around too. On Sunday morning we hiked around Lake Los Carneros where we saw a bigger variety of colorful birds than usual.
Our weekend breakfasts haven't changed. Scones on one morning and on the other morning pancakes topped with blueberries or strawberries.
Home chores, garden chores, catching up on reading for bookclubs, meal prep, phone calls to friends (yes, old-fashioned phone calls), scrutinizing the news for hopeful information ... no time for boredom.
Been trying to get through
Olive, Again by Elizabeth Strout and
City of Girls by Elizabeth Gilbert.
I miss food shopping at the stores, something Daryl strongly forbids. A non-negotiable thing. I dream about it. Of course, it's a small inconvenience. I can do it!
Richard Branson offering to mortgage his Caribbean Island to bail out Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Australia.
Oil prices made history - selling at negative prices - something about futures and lack of storage capabilities so sellers are paying to remove barrels from their facilities. All due to historic low demand. Saudi Arabia and Russia tried to compete with each other, flooding the market in March - a reaction to falling demand and this set the scene for more trouble.
April 23
In this generally gloomy atmosphere I scan the news for hopeful information. Any progress on treatment options? Has anyone started with vaccine trials? The answer is yes, but everything is still in the infant phase. Oxford University is about to begin trails on a vaccine. Germany has also announced a vaccine trail. Germany is also rolling out aggressive antibody testing, going door to door. They've already started this in Munich. Other avenues toward an improved situation - massive testing, tracing, tracking - requires strong central leadership. A toddler in the White House only adds to our gloom.
New case numbers and daily deaths in the USA are still high even though the curve appears flat. A lockdown is certain to continue for another month.
There's much to be thankful for though. Our hospitals nationwide have adequate beds and ventilators. In California the daily deaths are low, though our case numbers keep rising.
The first hot spell of the season has arrived. Warm, dry, windy days. I had to do my daily run before breakfast, in the cool of the morning.
South Africa was praised on NPR's Morning Edition for flattening their curve. Their aggressive approach - strict lockdown and targeted community testing - was attributed to lessons gleaned from prior epidemics like AIDS and Tuberculosis. Dr. Karim, a leading epidemiologist, has been appearing on TV to explain to the nation the government's rationale and what is known about Covid 19.
Fears of a second wave of infections in the fall keep appearing in the news.
I had my first Zoom bookclub meeting yesterday (April 22) with a new group. My Santa Barbara friend Robin invited me to join her Bay Area friends and New York daughter in a discussion of the book
Olive Again. It started at noon and was quite a success. For close to 2 hours we chatted about the book which covered such a large number of themes that it lent itself to hearty discussion. A grumpy old lady and all the people her life intersects with in her small Maine coastal town is the basic premise of this sequel to
Olive Kitteredge by Elizabeth Strout. The omniscient point of view and unusually prim, spare style was not in the slightest bit off-putting. The author's impressive skills pulls the reader into the heads of each of the unique characters, and compels you to read on. Be prepared to have your feelings manipulated. You may empathize with Olive, you may cheer her on, you may admire her, and you may detest her!
Best of all I appreciated the escapism from the reality in which we find ourselves. Back in late March and early April I found it hard to read books or concentrate on anything that was not about the coronavirus. Now I find I'm happy to find something gripping enough to distract me.
Looking at the University of Washinton's IHME Covid 19 model for California, daily deaths peaking - 115 today, largest number recorded in California. The model suggests a steady decline reaching 0 on May 18. From June 1 current lockdown measures could be eased to containment strategies, but first the state needs to ensure capacity to test, trace, and isolate. Large gatherings such as sporting events and concerts can only resume once therapeutics become available.
A heatwave had us wilting in record high temperatures (in the 90's). A heavy wind picked up late in the day too and these weather conditions give us the jitters. The Holiday Fire started on a day with exactly these weather conditions.
We had a special dinner composed with indulgences that we'd ordered from the best cheese shop in town, C'est Cheese. Sundried tomatoes, juicy and soft, a selection of olives, and exotic cheeses. For drinks we made Aperol spritz using a French Cremant. For mains we had stir fried rice, a great vehicle to use veggies from our weekly farm box - and left over orange soy beef from our local Chinese that we'd had the night before. Yum!
I had my 2nd Zoom bookclub this evening with my regular bookclub. There were 9 of us chatting from our homes. It was so good to see their faces and hear their voices. For the first hour we grumbled about the isolation and inconveniences we're enduring, but acknowledged how fortunate we were in this part of California. We have easy access to natural beauty and food shopping. The case numbers in our area have been low and remain low. The book we had selected
City of Girls by Elizabeth Gilbert stirred up energetic conversation. On the whole everyone liked aspects of it, but weren't overly enthusiastic. I, on the other hand, loved everything about it. The crafting was so masterful that when anyone objected about credibility of some actions, I considered that nitpicking. I found the characterization faultless. Everyone felt real - flawed, endearing, messy, valid. I was also taken by how skilled Gilbert was in capturing the zeitgeist of 1940's New York City. So many ambitious themes were addressed to make us examine the complex creatures that we are. Best of all, I appreciated the escapism into Vivian's life and world.
April 27
Another hot morning. Woke up at 7:00 AM, drove to Stow Park and ran in the shade of its mature trees for 20 minutes. Dog walkers, runners and construction workers allowed a fantasy of a normal world. But face masks and physical distancing leave no doubt that we're in the grip of a pandemic. The news this morning focused on reopening. What would it take? How would it look? A pivot from dwelling on the dismal current situation of still high numbers of new cases and new deaths, though the curve has plateaued. Everyone, after more than a month of keeping to themselves, is desperate for signs of some freedom. Italy is moving into Phase 2 of their long and strict lockdown.
Here, in the US, Georgia and increasing numbers of southern and Midwestern states are opening up their economies. Unlike Italy, where strict criteria are behind their decisions, these states are being reckless and could prolong progress in the country.
On my morning run, the air was cool, the perfect temperature to get my body moving at a reasonable pace.
After breakfast I scanned CNN.
Dr. Deborah Birx, a public health expert, has been in the news a lot. She's a member of the White House Covid 19 taskforce and is in the tricky position of having to speak hard truths while not offending her boss. Trump, at a press briefing last week, mused about injections of detergent and exposure to UV light as treatment options! What would future generations researching this pandemic make of this? Trump, like every single American, would like to be free of the problem. A successful vaccine, which seems a likelihood, will only be available next year. Treatment options aren't available. The only tool we have is aggressive testing, tracking, isolating and treating. The moron in charge doesn't think it's his job to address this! In California, Gavin Newsom has made it his goal to increase testing to 50, 000 a day by the end of April.
Good news from New Zealand. They have eliminated the virus. Recent new cases have been in the single digits and are under control. Early aggressive measures and diligent testing got them to this point. Australia is seeing similar success. My sister Pam says schools are starting up again in West Australia. Life there is starting to feel normal again.
How do we stay sane?
1. Saturday and Sunday morning Daryl and I left the house before 7:00 for beach walks -Ellwood Bluffs one morning and Goleta Beach the next. Nothing like the sight and sound of the ocean, birds, and nature scents to boost your spirits. The heatwave got lots of people up and about and we guessed that the beaches would be packed.
2. Reading good books - currently
Travel Light, Move Fast by Alexandra Fuller, a Southern African ex-pat.
3. Gardening - no shortage of chores in the spring after good rains
5. Watching fun stuff - just finished the first season of the heartwarming Australian drama
A Place to Call Home, now waiting for the first DVD of 2nd season.
6. Scrutinizing news for anything that will give us hope. Have they moved past Phase 1 of vaccine trails? Is there a new treatment being tried? Have they found more efficient ways to test? Dr. Birx says they need to find a way to detect antigen rather than the RNA. Would we be able to get out of lockdown before a vaccine comes out?
Covid 19 Numbers today:
Total identified world cases: 3,000,000; USA is at 990,000 with New York City still the epicenter . Ten countries have now exceeded China's number, which has stabilized. California has identified 44,000 cases. New cases: 1718; new deaths 32. New case numbers will spike due to increased testing.
There's been criticism of the University of Washington's IHME model, which gives optimistic projections and is used by the White House.
A non Covid 19 news item hitting the news is North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, the Rocketman. Where is he? The speculation is that he's dead after a botched heart operation.
April 29
When NPR woke us up this morning at 6:00 with news about the shrinking US economy, I didn't instantly sink into a despair about the state of the world. I've come to accept this new reality. There is no way out until therapeutics become available. That much we all know. I used to think that we'd defeat the virus by getting our new daily case numbers to below 20, like China, and with things under control, life would resume some normality. New Zealand, Australia and South Korea have attained that success. Here, in the US, it doesn't look promising. Terrible leadership, coupled with governors of southern and midewestern states planning to open up, plus protestors flouting lockdown protocols all conspire to prolong the agony. However, we have flattened the curve both nationwide and in our state. Deaths in California peaked on April 22 at 115. Today, there were 78 deaths. New identified cases peaked on April 20 at 2283, and today the number is 1469.
Yesterday, the governor, Gavin Newsom provided a roadmap, outlining 4 stages. Stage 1, the current lockdown, could end in a few weeks if the positive trend continues. Stage 2 would allow low risk retail and other businesses to open up. Schools may start to open up in July. Low cases, increased testing and tracing capacity and sufficient hospital care capacity may get us to Stage 3. Personal care services, limited entertainment venues and social gatherings would be permitted but with safety mechanisms in place. To get to Stage 4, normal life, we'd have to wait for therapeutics.
This reality would have been depressing - since we'd been hearing it would be summer of 2021 before a vaccine was available - but there was hopeful news in recent days. Vaccine trials are being fast tracked. The Jenner Institute attached to Oxford University hopes to have a vaccine available by September. Pfizer has also announced a joint US/Germany vaccine trial in progress and if successful, could become available this fall. Another bit of good news came from the biotech company Gilead Sciences. They've been seeing encouraging results for the antiviral drug Remdesivir.
Two nights ago I watched a PBS documentary in which the use of remdesivir on Patient 0 in Seattle proved successful. This documentary - themed a tale of 2 Washington's - described the hurdles encountered due to Federal government recklessness at the start of the Covid 19 epidemic in the US. At the first epicenter, a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington, doctors were unable to test patients for the new coronavirus due to the CDC's narrow criteria. None of the patients had traveled to China. Infectious disease specialists expressed their concerns about certain community spread, but Trump was dismissive. Governor Inslee took decisive action as outbreaks grew, without Federal help, fielding insults from Trump. Washington State succeeded in controlling the spread and bringing their new case numbers down.
Other news today: Food shortages and broken supply chains are a concern. Farmers are euthanizing livestock. Meatpacking facilities had to shut down due to Covid 19 outbreaks. Trump signed an executive ordering them to open up. Sickeningly, millions of dollars of food had to be destroyed due to a break in the chain needed to reach consumers.
Something to cheer us up: The Metropolitan Opera of NY streamed a concert on Sunday (April 26), something only possible with today's technology. Each performer played his/her instrument or sang either solo or in chorus from their private homes. On our screens we could see them all in their Zoom boxes. The sound quality was utterly impressive.
